Fundamental
Overview
The Swiss Franc lost some
more ground against the USD last Thursday as the US Jobless Claims figures came out better than
expected. That helped ease the fears around the US labour market triggered by
the weak NFP report and improved the risk sentiment.
The market has been slowly
paring back the aggressive rate cuts expectations for the Fed as now a 25 bps
cut in September is seen as more likely with a total of 98 bps of easing by
year-end. On the SNB side, the market is fully pricing a 25 bps cut in September
and a total of 46 bps of easing by year-end.
USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
USDCHF Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF almost erased the entire drop from the weak US NFP report and
it’s getting close to the key 0.8730 resistance.
That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new
highs.
USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
USDCHF 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to position
for new highs, while the sellers will look for a breakout to the downside to
pile in and position for new lows.
USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
USDCHF 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the pair bottomed out on Monday at the peak of the risk-off sentiment
and eventually increased the gains following the US Jobless Claims report.
There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe as the market participants
will likely wait for a catalyst or the price to reach the key levels. The red lines define the
average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Tomorrow we get the US PPI data. On Wednesday, we have the US CPI report. On
Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.
