No, X Is Not Seeing Massive Usage Declines

There’s been a lot of speculation this week that X usage is in significant decline following Elon Musk’s recent comments about race riots in the U.K. The pervading view, based on anecdotal evidence at least, is that more people are abandoning X, and switching to Threads instead, yet, at the same time, X owner Elon Musk claims that X hit a new record high in active user seconds this week.

So which is it? Is X really losing ground, as a result of Musk’s comments, or is it actually thriving amid his broader free speech push?

Well, there are a couple of elements to consider.

First off, as reported by TechCrunch, all of the available external data suggests that X hasn’t seen a significant drop-off in usage.

As per TechCrunch:

“App intelligence provider Sensor Tower, estimated that X’s average daily active users worldwide grew 2% from July to August 2024 [while] website traffic provider Similarweb reported that X is seeing daily and weekly fluctuations in engagement that are within the normal range across the web and mobile apps.”

So there’s nothing apparent in the overall download and usage data fed through third-party analysis platforms that suggests that X is suffering from any backlash as yet, though David Carr from SimilarWeb also shared on LinkedIn that Threads usage did reach new highs in the UK this week, while X continues to decline over time.

But again, in line with the overall trends, the shift here isn’t massive, though there was also another key element at play that would have helped to prop up X’s numbers last week.

On Tuesday, X reported that the 2024 Olympic Games drove record high engagement numbers in the app.

Taking that into account, when considering the notes from Sensor Tower and SimilarWeb, which both saw little change in X usage, it could be that X did see a drop, but that high engagement with the Olympics essentially covered the gap. Which could mean that X is still set to see a decline in the coming weeks, but as noted, X owner Elon Musk also claims that the platform reached a new record high in active users seconds this week.

That’s likely due to Elon’s X Spaces interview with former President Donald Trump, which drew big attention on Wednesday.

And while many have criticized Elon’s “active user seconds” measurement (including me), it could actually make logical sense, with respect to how Twitter had traditionally measured engagement.

As a former Twitter employee recently explained to social media expert Matt Navarra, the calculations for active seconds and minutes that Twitter had used in the past are very different, with Twitter counting any seconds within a minute as, effectively, a full minute.

“So a user could be on X for 5 seconds and it would be classed as [an active minute] because they were active during that minute.”

If that’s still the case at X, that would mean that active user seconds is a significantly more accurate measure, as X has claimed. 

So maybe, X is seeing more usage, but then again it’s been stuck on 250 million daily active users since November 2022, so more active seconds would only mean that the users who are still there are spending more time in the app, as opposed to X growing its influence.

But it would also be hard for X to maintain those active seconds if more users were turning away from the app.

The real pain point for X, however, is creators, and how many people are actively posting in the app. X has previously reported that only 20% of its users ever post anything in the app, or engage with posts, with the vast majority of users only checking in to read through their feeds.

Over time, more and more publishers have stopped posting to X, and the more of these active users it loses, the more it also loses relevance. And because it’s so reliant on these 50 million users, X is susceptible to major shifts if any of its community clusters or highly engaged groups leave.

Again, that’s seemingly not happening, mostly because of sports fandoms that are heavily embedded in the app (hence the popularity of the Olympics). But it’s worth noting that the impacts for X could be felt based on any user migration, because really, the app is totally reliant on a fractional sub-section of its users.

Which is no doubt where Threads is looking.

The app has already added live sports scores, and you can bet that it’s talking with major influencers that are still posting on X to sell them on the value of Threads instead.

But still, Threads trails behind X on real-time engagement, due to Threads’ algorithm weighting away from news and politics, and towards more light-hearted entertainment.

Which, again, is why X continues to win out with major political and sporting announcements, because it’s where you need to be to get the absolute latest info. I doubt that Threads will be able to maintain its aversion to news if it really wants to beat X in this regard, but right now, it’s trying to stay the course, with a view to building a more positive experience than X.

But will that work?

Maybe, on a longer time frame. Because right now the great Threads migration looks primarily like the chart above, with incremental usage declines for X, and slightly bigger gains for Threads.

Adding a few thousand more users a week is a positive, but with X still being around 6x more popular than Threads, the timeframe for a Threads takeover is still pretty, pretty long.

But then again, given X’s financial woes, maybe none of that will matter anyway, because if Elon and Co. can’t find a way to bring in more money, Threads is going to win by TKO, as X simply fades out of existence.

Actually, given Musk’s approach, it definitely won’t fade out, it’ll go down in flames. But following the U.S. election, I do think that X will have a reckoning. And sitting President may well be the determining factor in its future.  

But right now, no, X is not in massive decline, and no, Threads is not seeing huge gains. But there is a trend, steady and small, that does point to potential opportunity for Meta’s app.