From the report:
- The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index ticked back up to +0.06%.
- The last nine months has seen the Index growth rate hover in the –0.3 to +0.2% range, a clear improvement on the twelve months prior which saw much weaker reads in the –0.5 to –1% range.
- However, outright positives have proven hard to sustain. This is likely to be the case with the July result as well.
WPAC on their view of whats to come from the Reserve Bank of Australia:
- The Reserve Bank Board next meets on September 23–24. The RBA Governor made it clear following the last meeting in August that the Board was still not confident about the inflation outlook, retaining the position that it was not ruling anything in or out but adding that it was unlikely that the cash rate would be reduced in the short term.
- While the June quarter national accounts (due to be released on September 4) should clarify some questions about the strength of demand, and ease some of the Bank’s concerns about productivity growth as well, the messaging indicates that inflation updates will continue to be key for the Bank’s policy assessments. As such, there is little prospect of a shift either way in September with the next quarterly CPI update not due until October 30.
AUD/USD update:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
