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Why Dividend Investors Should Start Getting ‘Greedy When Others Are Fearful’ About Stocks

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Nattakorn Maneerat

Don’t Let Scaremongers Freak You Out About The Economy

The stock market is not the economy, and historically, perfectly timing the economy would not have beaten buy-and-hold.

The goal of these economic updates is never

Date Nate Silver 538 Decision Desk Economist Betting Markets Consensus Harris Average

Trump Average

8/30/24 47.3% 57.9% 57.0% 50.0% 49.5% 52.3% 47.7%
8/31/24 44.6% 56.5% 56.0% 50.0% 49.3% 51.3% 48.7%
9/1/24 44.0% 56.5% 56.0% 50.0% 49.5% 51.2% 48.8%
9/2/24 44.0% 56.5% 56.0% 50.0% 49.0% 51.1% 48.9%
9/3/24 43.0% 55.7% 56.0% 50.0% 48.8% 50.7% 49.3%
9/4/24 41.6% 55.4% 56.0% 50.0% 49.3% 50.5% 49.5%
9/5/24 39.7% 57.1% 55.0% 50.0% 48.2% 50.0% 50.0%

Weekly Change In S&P EPS Consensus Last Week’s EPS Consensus Year EPS Consensus YOY Growth Forward PE
0.00% $206.04 2021 $206.04 50.03% 26.3
0.00% $214.33 2022 $214.33 4.02% 25.3
0.00% $217.66 2023 $217.66 1.55% 24.9
-0.09% $241.23 2024 $241.01 10.73% 22.5
-0.08% $278.14 2025 $277.93 15.32% 19.5
0.04% $311.96 2026 $312.08 12.29% 17.4
12-Month forward EPS 12-Month Forward PE Historical Overvaluation
$266.57 20.323 2.61%

Week 36
% Of Year Done 2024 Weighting 2025 Weighting
69.23% 30.77% 69.23%
Forward S&P EV/EBITDA (Cash-Adjusted Earnings) 10-Year Rolling Average Market Overvaluation
13.89 13.54 2.61%
S&P Fair Value Decline To Fair Value Fair Value PE
5,275.40 2.55% 19.82

Potential Overvaluation (10-Year Average) S&P 10-Year Average Cash-Adjusted PEG S&P Current Cash-Adjusted PEG
-35.38% 1.77 1.14
Potential Overvaluation (25-Year Average) S&P 20-Year Average

S&P Current Cash-Adjusted PEG

-52.74% 2.42 1.14
PEG Adjusted Overvaluation Immediate Justified Upside Potential Potential 12-Month Fundamentals Justified Returns
-14.74% 11.73% 25.19%

All-Time High $5,669.67
Current $5,411.58
Distance From High 4.55%
Pullback Level 5386.19
Correction Level 5102.70
-15% Correction Level (Historically Average Correction Bottom) 4819.22
Bear Market Level (-20%) 4535.74
-25% Bear Market 4252.25
-30% Bear Market 3968.77
-35% Bear Market 3685.29
-40% Bear Market 3401.80
Distance To Pullback 0.4%
Distance To Correction 5.4%
Distance To 15% Correction (Average Intra-year Peak decline) 10.9%
Distance To Bear Market 16.18%
Distance To -25% Bear Market 21.4%
Distance To -30% Bear Market 26.7%
Distance To -35% Bear Market (Average Historical Recessionary Bear Market Low -36%) 31.9%
Distance To -40% Bear Market 37.1%
Record Closes This Year 38
Most Record Closes Ever (1995) 77
On Track For Record Closes: 54.9

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