Wednesday’s moves were enough to give any investor whiplash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 743.89 points lower at one point during the session. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed as much as 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively. Those declines came after new consumer inflation data poured cold water on any lingering hopes that the Federal Reserve might slash interest rates as much as half a percentage point at next week’s policy meeting. The sell-off didn’t last, however. The Dow ended the day 166.72 points higher. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq, meanwhile, posted gains of 1.2% and 2.3%, respectively. “The remarkable rebound rally yesterday stunned investors and left many wondering if it was just an ephemeral head fake or the start of a more sustained period of stability,” wrote Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge. “We’re more in the latter camp as macro fundamentals remain supportive, but elevated valuations remain a huge obstacle.” The comeback came as Wall Street struggles to find its footing in September, with seasonal headwinds and worries over the economy putting pressure on stocks. The three major averages are down more than 1% month to date. Others are even less sanguine. “We don’t think equity markets are entirely out of the woods yet,” wrote Marco Iachini, senior vice president of research at Vanda Research. “Besides seasonal headwinds, we view weakness thus far in the month as an extension of the mid-summer positioning-driven downturn. These kinds of drawdowns typically follow a ‘W’-shaped pattern.” Iachini noted that investments by individuals into stocks have begun to slow, but that Main Street hasn’t capitulated yet. “What’s important to remember is that a capitulation by retail traders has consistently flagged the bottom in the second leg lower of the aforementioned ‘W’ pattern. That hasn’t occurred yet, and thus, we remain on alert for a potential final flush,” he said. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), used to gauge uncertainty in the stock market, broke above 21 on Wednesday before closing at 17.69. Elevated VIX levels tend to correspond with big market swings, which the market has been seeing lately. The S & P 500 has already posted four 1% moves in September. “This is a sign of an uncertain market,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. He also noted investors may want to be careful buying dips at this point. “Buying the dip has worked for a lot of people for [a] long time,” he said. “But at some point, buying dips turns into catching a falling knife. I would say it’s premature to say we’re there right now, at least for longer-term investors, but for short-term traders, that could change very quickly.”
