Trump Media shares crash to file low whilst new polls offers ex-president’s marketing campaign a lift

Shares in the former president’s social media group plumbed fresh all-time lows on Monday, even as the latest polls suggest he’s gaining ground in a few key battleground states in the nation’s sunbelt. 

Until recently, the price of his Truth Social parent company was widely viewed as a barometer of his chances in November.

On Monday, a poll published by The New York Times and Siena College showed him holding onto his lead in Georgia while pulling ahead of Harris in Arizona and North Carolina following their contentious debate this month that saw Trump go viral for claiming immigrants are eating pets.

It also marked the sixth straight day of heavy selling in Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), the parent of Twitter clone Truth Social, after a very brief respite when Trump told reporters he had no intention of selling his nearly 115 million shares of stock.

It closed down 10% on the session to finish at $12.15, its lowest level since it first announced three years ago plans to go public via a reverse merger with a blank check investment vehicle known as a SPAC. 

That means the value of Trump’s 59% stake in the company, which was until this week subject to a six-month lockup period following the SPAC merger, has dwindled to just $1.4 billion from its peak in March of more than $9 billion.

Assuming Trump doesn’t sell his stake as he claims, the selling pressure will not necessarily let up, either.

Hello everyone! I have something incredible to share today, as we are introducing the launch of our Official Trump Coins! The ONLY OFFICIAL coin designed by me—and proudly minted here in the U.S.A. The President Donald J. Trump First Edition Silver Medallion will be available… pic.twitter.com/9SP1PaLOTh

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 21, 2024

Billion-dollar valuation, million-dollar sales

With its meme stock image and refusal to reveal anything about the underlying metrics driving its business, the stock is shunned by financial analysts.

There’s not one estimate on Yahoo Finance for this year’s revenue, let alone earnings or, in TMTG’s case, losses. 

Applying the same 7.5x price-to-sales multiple for next year’s revenue that Reddit currently trades to TMTG stock would give it a market cap of around $25 million.

That’s a fraction of the $2.4 billion that TMTG, on track for annual sales well below $4 million (with an ‘m’), is currently worth.

Excluding the $344 million raised from the SPAC deal—cash for which investors typically do not assign a multiple beyond their stated value—the amount of total assets on its books that can potentially generate profits for shareholders amounted to just $12.5 million at the end of June.

Fortune could not reach TMTG officials for comment. When contacted via TMTG’s Truth Social, Trump did not respond to a request for a statement.

‘Directional bet on the value of his brand’

Given Trump’s need to drum up cash to meet legal fines in the hundreds of millions of dollars and the lack of unencumbered assets he can easily liquidate, investors seem unwilling to take the former White House resident’s words at face value. 

Last week, he announced his latest merchandising plan: selling one-ounce silver coins embossed with his face for $100 each—more than three times their current intrinsic value.

Chamath Palihapitiya, an early Facebook investor best known for promoting SPACs during their pandemic-era boom, ironically predicted TMTG was “a directional bet on the value of his brand” and something akin to the Official Trump Coin just unveiled.  

Speaking on the All-In podcast shortly after TMTG began trading in March, he said the stock is “effectively a trading coin, a baseball card if you will—a trading card via a stock” that banks on the former president’s name recognition and likeness. 

Trump may have inadvertently hurt his own investment story by declaring on Sunday he wouldn’t run again for the presidency should he lose in November. By taking him out of any future races, he stands to lose his influence on shaping the Republican party.