Base case forecast for RBA to chop on November 5 – a detailed name, very a lot knowledge dependent

United Overseas Bank (UOB) in Singapore are maintaining a ‘base case’ forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate by 25bp at its next meeting, on November 5.

OUB say the cut is a “close call’ and “very much dependent on upcoming data
releases” ahead of the meeting date:

• labour market data on October 17
• Q3 CPI data due on October 30

In their reasoning UOB cite their expectation that inflation in Australia will continue to moderate lower. UOB view core inflation progress as encouraging (trimmed mean dropped to 3.4% in the latest data published earlier this week, down from 3.8% in the previous month).

UOB say that if the deceleration in trimmed mean inflation continues into the next round of monthly CPI data, and Q3 data, this may prompt a November 5 cut.

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Good stuff from UOB. I think November is too early but I am lightly pencilling in December … subject to seeing Q3 CPI data of course.