A new poll from Gallup, which is widely viewed as a liberal polling outfit, finds that Republicans are leading in party ID in the third quarter of this year. This is the first time this has happened since 1992.
That bodes very well for the Trump campaign and Republicans in general.
It represents a shift in the electorate and suggests that people are less shy about identifying as conservative.
Nick Arama writes at RedState:
Gallup Drops Stunner of a Poll for Trump That Could be the Game Changer
We’ve been seeing some big polls over the past few days that have had good news for former President Donald Trump: the NYT/Siena, Emerson, and even the Quinnipiac poll (which tends to lean left). NYT and Emerson were looking at swing states with Trump ahead. Quinnipiac looked at the national vote and had Trump up by 1 point with likely voters…
Now there’s a new Gallup poll that may just be the game if it bears out. Guy Benson at our sister site, Townhall, asked if it might be the “best poll yet.” And it’s easy to see why he might ask that question, given the history of the poll.
Here’s what it says on party ID lean.
This is the first time Republicans have led in Quarter 3 in a presidential year going back to 1992.
See the graph in the tweet below:
Gallup: First time Republicans have led on Party ID in Q3 of presidential year. pic.twitter.com/Beo4KyoNGB
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 24, 2024
See other years below for comparison:
Gallup track record is pretty scarily accurate on the national popular vote by tracking PARTY ID/LEAN… and look at what they predict for this election:
2008: D+8 (Obama+7.2)
2012: D+4 (Obama+3.9)
2016: D+3 (Clinton+2.1)
2020: D+5 (Biden+4.5)
2024: R+3 (?)Just… pic.twitter.com/9mQnHRBDs8
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 24, 2024
Those numbers may look small, but they represent a massive shift in the vote. If it holds up, it could make all the difference in November.
