The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the last three NFC South titles.
At 3-1, they have the early lead in the division again and can strengthen their edge as they face their closest competitors—the 2-2 Atlanta Falcons and the 2-2 New Orleans Saints—in Weeks 5 and 6.
But no team from the NFC South has advanced past the divisional round of the playoffs since the wild-card Bucs won the Super Bowl after the 2020 season.
Tampa Bay can establish itself as one of the top early contenders in the NFC by winning Thursday night in Atlanta and 10 days later in New Orleans. But a loss in either or both of the games would create a logjam of mediocrity that has been a feature of the division in recent seasons.
While the Carolina Panthers, 1-3 after going 2-15 a year ago, appear to be facing an ongoing rebuilding project, the Falcons, who last made the playoffs in 2017, and the Saints, who last made the playoffs in 2020, both made significant off-season moves designed to help them unseat the Bucs and emerge as contenders.
But so far the results have been average.
Both teams hired highly regarded assistants to be their offensive coordinators, Atlanta grabbing former Rams quarterback coach/passing game coordinator Zac Robinson and New Orleans importing former 49ers offensive passing game specialist Klint Kubiak.
The Falcons, who at 7-10 finished two games behind the second-place Saints last season, went even further to help out first-year head coach Raheem Morris by signing free-agent quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract.
But Atlanta averaged less than 17 points per game in losing two of its first three, though it did beat the Saints 26-24 last Sunday without scoring an offensive touchdown.
New Orleans was as impressive as any team in the NFL in the first two weeks, beating the Panthers 47-10 and the Cowboys 44-10, but the loss in Atlanta was preceded by a 15-12 home loss to the Eagles. The Saints, who visit the undefeated Super Bowl champion Chiefs on Monday night, have outscored their opponents 127-70, tying the undefeated Vikings for the largest scoring margin in the NFL, but they have just a breakeven record (and a to-game losing streak) to show for it.
As for the Bucs, they are coming off a 33-16 victory against the Eagles and have two other impressive wins, handing both the surprising Commanders (37-20) and the Lions (20-16) their only losses.
But two weeks ago Tampa Bay was handled easily at home by the Broncos 26-7.
The upcoming back-to-back divisional road games will be a good gauge for the Bucs, whose game at Detroit has been their only game away from home.
Perceived contenders such as the Cowboys, Eagles, Packers, 49ers and Rams are off to surprisingly slow starts, while the Commanders, Vikings and Seahawks appear to be stronger contenders than generally was expected.
Meanwhile, in the NFC South, unless and until someone demonstrates otherwise, continued mediocrity is the only label that sticks.
