Guest post by Joe Hoft at JoeHoft.com – republished with permission
Inflated Voter Rolls Result in Misleading Turnout Reporting
This actuarial analysis outlines misleading voter turnouts caused by bloated voter rolls.
It is well established that the Virginia Registration List (“VRL”) is materially overinflated. Recent estimates suggest that the list may include more than 1 million false registrations (excluding inactive registrations).
What may be underappreciated is that the high number of false registrations on the voter rolls materially distorts reported voter turnout statistics.
This mathematical demonstration shows how false registrations make turnout statistics unreliable, and facilitates an opportunity to hide election fraud. To illustrate this problem, Virginia’s Henrico County 2020 Presidential reported turnout statistics are used.
Facts:
US Census estimates based on actual surveys for the ratio of the number of registrants on the rolls to the citizen voting-age population nationwide for the last six general elections are presented below. Note that the highest ratio was recorded in 2020, at 72.7%. Virginia’s ratio was between 75% and 76%.
Virginia’s VRL reflects registration rates materially greater than these US Census Bureau rates. Of note, below is an excerpt from a pre-litigation letter filed August 8, 2023, by the law firm of Holtzman Vogel threatening litigation against the Virginia Department of Elections for alleged negligence in maintaining Virginia’s registration list. Note the impossible 102.5% ratio for Henrico County. The Holtzman Vogel findings are corroborated by statistics published by the Election Assistance Commission for Virginia for 2020. This translates to a 26.5% difference (102.5% – 76.0%) from the 2020 US Census ratio or, in other words, possibly 1 in 4 voter registrations are in question when this US Census metric is used. Note this estimate excludes inactive registrations.
Below is the summary page of the Henrico County report where turnout, total registrations and total ballots cast numbers in the 2020 general election (in yellow) are presented by Henrico County’s Registrar:
Calculation of Impact on Turnout Statistics of False Registrations
The reported turnout statistic for Henrico County was 77.62% based on 183,670 ballots cast and 236,922 registrations. However, if the registration list provided by ELECT contains an excessive number of false registrations, what is the impact on reported turnout of those false registrations?
The calculation is straightforward. If the historical US Census ratio of 76% is used, then the total registration number used in the denominator should be reduced by 1-(76.0/102.5) = .265 (or 26.5%). This would mean the estimate of the Henrico registration list total of legal/real voters is not 236,922, but rather 174,378 (a difference of 62,784), producing a corresponding turnout ratio of not 77.62%, but rather 105.5% (183,670/174,137).
Further, Henrico’s registrar included approximately 6,100 inactive registrations along with the active registrations in the Henrico County turnout calculation. If inactive registrations had been excluded, reported turnout would have been 2% to 3% higher.
Raising Red Flags
These findings raise serious red flags suggesting the likelihood of material ballot stuffing in Henrico County in the 2020 Presidential. How does the Henrico County Registrar justify a turnout rate of 77% in the face of government statistics that provide compelling evidence that Virginia’s registration lists are materially inflated? Residents of Henrico County are owed an explanation.
And Henrico County residents would also like to know: Where is Henrico County’s Electoral Board?
