A French whale has wager $45 million on a Trump win to date. Who is that this?

The prediction market website told the New York Times DealBook that the person is a French national with “extensive trading experience and a financial services background.” The company didn’t elaborate further but did say it had contacted the whale and they had agreed to not “open further accounts without notice.”

The four accounts controlled by the whale—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—have bet $45 million in total on a Trump victory through a series of small transactions, Bloomberg reported. The small transactions made by multiple accounts were likely meant to prevent the cost of betting on Trump winning the election from rising too quickly so they can get the best deal. 

Who can bet on Polymarket?

Polymarket enables users to place bets on outcomes, including the presidential election, through cryptocurrency. Americans have been barred from using Polymarket since shortly after the platform was fined by the CFTC in 2022 for allegedly offering illegal options trading. Although a court win for rival prediction market Kalshi earlier this month has opened the door to election betting, Polymarket has not opened its platform to U.S. citizens and has started to crack down on American users. 

Although some experts have claimed prediction markets are a more accurate way of predicting elections because real money is at stake, some have said the bets could be made to manipulate the presidential election. Others have cast doubt that prediction markets matter at all, pushing back on claims that wagers for Trump on prediction platforms could influence his election odds. 

After investigating the mysterious French whale, Polymarket concluded that the trader is “taking a directional position based on personal views of the election.” 

What is more clear is that the whale’s four identified accounts are making myriad bets on Trump—and against vice president Kamala Harris. Over a period of 10 hours as of midday Friday, one of the trader’s accounts, Theo4, made more than 450 distinct bets on Kamala Harris not winning the presidential election in amounts that ranged from less than $5 to tens of thousands of dollars. 

Other bets made by the French whale’s accounts include wagers on whether a Republican will win the popular vote and the presidency (yes bet), whether a Democrat will win the Michigan Presidential election (no bet), and whether Harris will win the popular vote (no bet). 

The trader’s most prolific account, Fredi9999, boasts $19 million in mostly political bets on the site, including a $13.8 million position betting on Trump to win the election. 

Amid the controversy over its election bets and the French whale, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said in a post on X that the company is non-partisan and transparent. He added that Polymarket was never meant to be centered on election betting.

“Polymarket is not about politics. The vision never was to be a political website, and it still isn’t,” Coplan wrote.