Donald Trump Claims Victory – What Comes Next

In a surprising turn, Trump’s victory speech was relatively
subdued; no threats of tariffs were mentioned, and he did not refer to his
opponent, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who postponed her scheduled
speech at Howard University. ‘Winning the popular vote was very nice’, Trump
said in his speech, adding: ‘America has given us an unprecedented and powerful
mandate; we have taken back control of the Senate’.

Several members of Trump’s team and friends were invited to
speak on stage. His running mate, JD Vance of Ohio, thanked Trump for allowing
him to ‘join you on this incredible journey’. Vance added, ‘I think we just
witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States
of America’.

Dana White, the CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship
(UFC), also addressed the nation, stating, ‘Nobody deserves this more than him
[Trump]’. He remarked that Trump ‘is the most resilient man I have ever met’.

Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, also received
significant praise from Trump, voicing his appreciation and calling Musk a
‘super genius’, emphasising that ‘we have to protect our geniuses’. Musk has
been vocal in his support for Trump and reportedly invested over US$130 million
in his campaign.

Foreign leaders applauded Trump for his victory. UK Prime
Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Trump and said he looks forward to
collaborating with Trump in the years ahead. India’s Prime Minister Narendra
Modi took to the platform X to convey his wishes as well, emphasising his
desire to strengthen the partnership between the two countries. Additionally,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Trump’s win as ‘history’s
greatest comeback’ in his post on X.

What Does Donald Trump’s Victory Mean for the US?

Donald Trump will be inaugurated on 20 January 2025 at the
US Capitol building in Washington, DC. Americans can expect tax cuts,
immigration controls and tariffs.

A Trump presidency will also likely mean lower taxes, a move
with plans for widespread changes to taxation, which should increase spending
and spur sentiment, at least in the near term.

In his own words, Donald Trump’s second term is expected to
be ‘nasty a little bit at times, and maybe at the beginning in particular’.
Trump has promised an aggressive approach towards illegal immigration in the
US, which could include plans of mass deportation of undocumented migrants,
noting that he ‘will launch the largest deportation program in American history
to get the criminals out’.

Trade tariffs are another one of Trump’s policies that the
US economy can expect, as he is expected to increase the protectionist policies
he introduced in his first term. However, as noted, he failed to address this
in his victory speech today.

Another important issue that Trump and the team must address
is the debt ceiling (or debt limit), which is the maximum amount of money the
US Treasury can borrow to pay its debt obligations. You may recall that the
‘statutory debt ceiling’ was suspended in early January and is due to be
reinstated on 1 January 2025. This may involve the Treasury drawing on its
existing cash to fulfil its short-term obligations until another suspension of
the debt limit is imposed or the debt ceiling is further increased.

Trump Trade is Alive and Kicking

Markets responded as expected, reigniting the Trump Trade,
with the US dollar (USD), US Treasury yields, US equities and digital
currencies all catching a strong bid.

Despite moderately fading session highs, the US Dollar Index
is up 1.5%, which could eventually see the Index aim for June peaks at around
106.13, closely followed by 106.52, the high for the year. US Treasury yields
remain underpinned, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding near session highs
around 4.42% (up 3.5%).

While commodities experienced a selloff, we have seen a
modest recovery unfold, drawing spot gold (XAU/USD) and WTI oil off session
lows. In the crypto space, versus the USD, Bitcoin clocked a fresh record high
of US$75,415 (up 6.4%), and Ethereum is up nearly 9.0% and testing the upper
boundary of a symmetrical triangle, pencilled in from US$2,062 and US$2,790.