As a critical resource in the global
economy, oil is integral not only to the energy sector but also to industries
such as transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture. Changes in its prices
impact inflation rates, production costs, and global trade. For instance, oil
price increases can accelerate global inflation. This effect ripples through
various sectors, with higher transportation and production costs driving up
prices for goods and services worldwide. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market
analyst at Octa Broker, deciphers current oil market trends, elucidating the
economic and trading implications for market participants to consider.
Current state of the oil market
In 2024, the global oil market faces an intricate balance of supply and
demand, with production hovering around 101.5 million
barrels per day,
closely mirroring daily consumption. OPEC+, primarily responding to concerns
over weak demand due to slowing economic growth in major markets, recently
implemented production cuts aimed at reducing volatility. Unlike previous
measures driven by supply shortages, this strategic adjustment seeks to
stabilise prices amid shifts in market sentiment and to offset demand
uncertainties from countries like China. Furthermore, sanctions affecting
Russian oil exports have introduced additional market opacity due to shadow fleet
operations.
Macroeconomic activity in major oil consumers, including the U.S. and
China, continues to drive global demand trends. Studies suggest a 1% global GDP
rise generally correlates with an approximate 0.8% increase in oil
demand,
underscoring how economic performance directly influences energy consumption.
In recent months, U.S. demand has shown a moderate decline due to inflation and high
interest rates, which have impacted consumer spending. China’s demand has been
tempered by a stabilising growth rate, signalling a softening in oil demand
from Asia’s largest economy.
Last autumn price peaks have given way to a more recent stabilisation,
with oil prices now ranging between $70 and $75 per
barrel. As of
middle November 2024, Brent crude was trading around $71.97, while West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) stood at $68.04 per barrel. This recent dip from the
previous week reflects the market’s sensitivity to both demand forecasts and
ongoing geopolitical factors.
Which factors affect the oil
market?
Political
tensions in oil-producing regions play a significant role in shaping global oil
prices. For example, recent sanctions on Russia have limited its oil export
capabilities, impacting around 4 million barrels per day, or roughly 5% of global
supply.
Additionally, production cuts by OPEC+ have introduced further supply
restrictions to stabilise prices. Such geopolitical decisions highlight the
importance of political stability in the oil sector.
In
the U.S., recent political shifts could lead to policy changes impacting
domestic oil production. Donald Trump’s re-election signals a potential return
to deregulation, favouring domestic production growth. His prior administration
expanded U.S. oil output to a record high of 13 million barrels
per day in 2019,
and similar policies could drive further supply increases. Higher U.S.
production, however, could introduce more supply into the global market, likely
exerting downward pressure on prices and potentially increasing market
volatility.
Technological
advancements and a shift towards renewable energy are gradually reducing the
reliance on traditional oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects
that by 2040, renewable sources could meet over 40% of global
energy demand, as
countries aim to cut carbon emissions in line with climate goals. Despite these
shifts, oil is expected to remain essential for sectors like aviation and heavy
manufacturing, although overall demand may see a decline in the coming decades.
Future prospects of the oil
market
OPEC+
production decisions, global economic recovery trends, and seasonal demand
patterns will likely influence short-term oil market dynamics. Seasonal heating
demand during the winter months typically drives
prices upward,
especially in colder regions. Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are
anticipated to see steady growth in oil demand as industrial activity expands.
This short-term demand increase could provide upward
pressure on prices,
balancing out some of the recent supply constraints.
In
the long term, the oil market faces a transformative shift as renewable energy
adoption accelerates. With governments worldwide investing heavily in
sustainable energy infrastructure, global oil demand is projected to decline
gradually over the next two decades. According to the IEA, global oil
consumption could decrease by as much as 25% by 2040 as electric vehicle adoption and
green technology become mainstream. This energy transition poses both
challenges and opportunities for the oil sector, requiring adaptation to
shifting consumer demands.
Trump’s
victory could significantly influence oil market dynamics through policies that
favour the oil and gas sector. His administration previously prioritised energy
independence, implementing deregulation policies that boosted domestic
production. A return to such policies could lead to increased U.S. output,
potentially intensifying competition in the global market and affecting price
stability.
Additionally, shifts in foreign policy could reshape trade relations with major
oil-producing nations, impacting global oil flows.
Oil
remains a critical asset within the global economy, influencing inflation,
production costs, and economic stability. At the same time, the asset’s price
is affected by geopolitical stability, OPEC decisions, technological advances,
environmental policies, global supply and demand, as well as the US dollar
strength since the price of oil is commonly denominated in US dollars. Traders
and investors should monitor these factors to be aware of recent market trends
and to be able to identify potential price movements more carefully.
About Octa
Octa is an
international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide
since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and a variety
of services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52
million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals,
Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.
The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable
and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational
infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.
Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 70 awards, including
the ‘Best Forex Broker 2023’ award from AllForexRating and the ‘Best Mobile
Trading Platform 2024’ award from Global Brand Magazine.
