Guest post by Courtland Sykes
Since September 2024, China has launched multiple intermediate-range ballistic missiles over America’s most strategic position in the Pacific – Guam.
These weren’t random missile exercises. These were deliberately aimed at U.S. territory. Oddly, no one talked about it then, and no one’s talking about it now. And that’s exactly how China wants it.
Two Statements Released from the Offices of Homeland Security and Civil Defense on 5 November and 25 September 2024.
Threat assessment 1 – September 25, 2024 – unidentified projectile launch:
Threat assessment 2 – November 5, 2024 – missile launch in the region:
Having hung my toes off the edge of the South Pacific on Guam these last five months, I can say the American public doesn’t realize how close they are to losing the Pacific to China.
The consequences? If we ceded the Pacific to China, the Western Hemisphere’s economic engine would be dominated by China and we could start seeing Mandarin writing on U.S. road signs within five years.
When I arrived in Guam, nobody openly acknowledged China’s effort to target our military facilities in the Pacific. We all know China wants to invade Taiwan, but the idea that China’s ambition includes threatening U.S. territories seemed inconceivable. But I witnessed it myself.
At the time, I was fueling up at a gas station when sirens started wailing and loudspeakers called all U.S. Sailors, Marines, and Airmen on Guam back to base to shelter in place. It was surreal.
On November 5, 2024, China launched another missile over Guam. That it was Election Day back home in America was absolutely no coincidence.
China has every intention of invading Taiwan should civil unrest develop in the U.S. They were counting on domestic U.S. instability after the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, and might still if the federal government operates illegally against President Trump during his second term.
In preparation for U.S. instability, China developed a new missile for the sole purpose of wiping Guam off the map with their DF-26 missiles, dubbed the “Guam Killer.”
The stakes have never been higher for American stability in the Pacific. In fact, geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region are higher than they’ve been since 1945, and now Guam has emerged as a pivotal battleground in the looming confrontation between the United States and China.
This development not only heightens the threat to this U.S. territory but underscores Guam’s strategic significance in the evolving dynamics of America’s global power.
For weeks I racked my brain on how to divert China’s crosshairs from Guam. Move an aircraft carrier strike group to Guam? Maintain a more robust diplomatic presence on the island.
Indeed, I’m not the only one wondering how to solve this strategic conundrum, but DoD leadership appears complacent – dare I say, comatose on this subject.
Worse, after the Biden administration managed to have 35,000 U.S. Marines and their families kicked out of Okinawa this year, we are down to two crucial military and diplomatic positions in the Pacific, Hawaii and Guam.
Guam is formidable enough to be the largest target for China but isn’t formidable enough for China to consider the island a non-option for military strikes.
Strategically, Guam is a vital hub for American power in the Pacific. Acquired by the U.S. after the Spanish-American War in 1898, Guam became a key outpost, especially during World War II, when it was captured by Japan and later retaken by U.S. forces.
In the Cold War and beyond, Guam served as a crucial base for projecting power in Asia and deterring regional threats.
Yet, despite escalating regional tensions from North Korea and China, the U.S. in July 2024 scaled back its budget for Raytheon’s SM-6, SM-3 Block IIA, Lockheed Martin’s THAAD, and the Patriot PAC-3 air defense systems on Guam.
This decision signals a concerning shift away from maintaining Guam’s robust defensive infrastructure.
China’s military minds delighted at this winding down of resources on Guam. This was their chance. China’s DF-26 “Guam Killer,” capable of accurately striking targets over 3,000 miles away and carrying between 7 to 11 warheads per missile, represents a significant advancement in China’s military capabilities.
With its ability to carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, the “Guam Killer” poses a direct threat to U.S. military assets stationed in the South Pacific, including air and naval bases that serve as critical nodes in American defense strategy in the Pacific.
Guam’s geographical location makes it a fulcrum for U.S. operations in Asia, providing a platform for power projection and rapid response to regional crises.
Guam’s strategic importance cannot be overstated. It is not just a military outpost; it is a symbol of American resolve in the face of rising authoritarianism. Guam is at the forefront of a potential showdown.
The U.S. must enhance its defense posture in Guam, invest in advanced missile defense systems, and fortify its existing military infrastructure.
This includes not only technological upgrades but also training.
Moreover, diplomatic efforts must be intensified to engage China with neighboring countries and reduce tensions fearlessly, as the stakes are too high for miscalculations that could spiral into armed conflict.
But of course, none of this has been happening under four years of Biden – and there’s little sign this problem is on the radar of our incoming administration mainly because military leadership seems hellbent on ignoring it.
So, how do we save our most strategic outpost against China? As recently as a few weeks ago, it was a hopelessly doomed dilemma.
Then… lightning struck.
Future HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while on stage with Dr. Phil, laid out his plan for cleaning the bureaucracy. In what seemed to be a rhetorical joke, RFK said we could send Health and Human Services (HHS) bureaucrats, who can’t be fired, to Guam.
While he was most likely joking, I don’t think anyone realizes how brilliant this is. Not only to weed bureaucrats out of Washington, but it’s an actual solution to our China-Pacific problem.
If you want to ensure complete physical security, fill a building with U.S. bureaucrats and use civil servants as a shield against Chinese aggression. It will be the most valuable role they ever play in their useless careers.
The Pacific’s future hangs in the balance at the tricky intersection of U.S.-China relations. As both nations navigate this complex landscape, Guam’s role on the frontlines cannot be ignored. But it is. And China knows it.
RFK may have inadvertently fixed this gaping geopolitical hole.
Send HHS to Guam and arm that island to the teeth! While we’re at it, we could show the same kind of love to American Samoa… Department of Labor, perhaps?
About the Author:
Courtland Sykes, a graduate of Harvard University and the Naval War College, is a combat veteran who served as an intelligence analyst with Navy SEAL Team 5, NSW Unit 3, and the Defense Intelligence Agency. Courtland spent 2023-2024 in Iraq and the South Pacific to focus on hostile threats to the United States from Iran and China.
