Fundamental
Overview
The US Dollar remains the
strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple
of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining
largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025 despite a
series of strong US data.
This might be a signal that
we are bottoming out here and we could see a correction to the downside in the
US Dollar. This should translate in a higher GBP/USD exchange rate.
On the GBP side, last week
we got the UK CPI report with the data coming in higher than
expected. Moreover, the BoE’s members sounded a bit less dovish recently. This
has strengthened the probabilities for no change at the December meeting but
didn’t change much for the overall easing expectations in 2025.
GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
GBPUSD Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD failed to sustain the break below the major trendline
and it’s now consolidating around the trendline. The buyers will likely keep on
piling in around these levels to position for a pullback into the downward
trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling
back below the major trendline to target new lows.
GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
GBPUSD 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the pair looks to be bottoming out here and we might see a pullback
into the major downward trendline. The first target for the buyers should be
the resistance
around the 1.27 handle where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence.
GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
GBPUSD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.2615 level where the
price got rejected from several times in the past days. The buyers will want to
see a breakout to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the sellers
will likely step in here to position for a drop into new lows. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we get the US PCE report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures.
