The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rises to 3.2% from 3.1% after the housing starts data released earlier today.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on December 18, up from 3.1 percent on December 17. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential fixed investment growth increased from 4.7 percent to 5.3 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 20. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
At the end of 2023, the Fed forecast that GDP for 2024 would slow to 1.4%. The growth rate has exceeeded those estimates as the economy continued to hum along. In September, the Fed forecase 2025 growth to come in at 2.0%.
Today the Fed will release their forecast for GDP, Unemployment, and PCE inflation (headline and core). They will also forecast the end of year Fed Funds guesstimate. In September they forecast an additional 100 bps of cuts in 2025. The expectatation is for that forecast to be something less.
