How the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Will Play Out

Let’s face it: The expanded College Football Playoff could not have opened in a more disappointing fashion. With four wins by double-digit margins, the new format was less “Gridiron March Madness” and more “Paycheck-Opponent Homecoming Game.”

Coming off of a quartet of bad matchups, the quarterfinals can deliver the goods. On paper, that promises to be the case.

Played at history-rich bowl games on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, the next round more closely resembles the traditional college football postseason and features matchups perhaps more deserving of the championship hoopla.

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Penn State – Tuesday, Dec. 31

Boise State and Penn State have never played, but each program’s most iconic moment came at the Fiesta Bowl: For Boise State, it was the 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma in January 2007 that put the Broncos on the map. For Penn State, its 14-10 defeat of Miami 20 years earlier won the Nittany Lions their most recent national championship.

Strength vs. strength defines this New Year’s Eve clash in the Phoenix area. The Penn State run defense has been nothing short of sensational, limiting opponents to 3.1 yards per carry and a total of seven touchdowns on the ground all season.

In contrast, Boise State’s unanimous All-American running back Ashton Jeanty has carried for 29 touchdowns on his own, part of the most prolific individual season for a ball carrier since Barry Sanders’ borderline-mythic 1988.

The Nittany Lions defense isn’t impenetrable, having given up 30 points in an October win at USC and 45 points in the Dec. 7 Big Ten Championship Game. In those two contests, Penn State surrendered its two highest rushing yields of the season: 189 and 183 yards.

That’s three and nine yards fewer than Jeanty’s per-game average, for those keeping score.

However, expect Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen to throw a strategy at Boise State that begs the Broncos to beat Penn State with anyone but Jeanty. The Boise State back has excelled against eight-man boxes much of the season, but some of the more aggressive approaches have sent nine defenders Jeanty’s way.

A similar scheme that sees safeties Jaylen Reed and Zakee Wheatley operating almost as additional linebackers could put the onus on Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen, who has not thrown for 200 yards in any of the Broncos’ last three games. 

Peach Bowl: Texas vs. Arizona State – Wednesday, Jan. 1

When Arizona State and Texas last faced off in the 2007 Holiday Bowl, current Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham was in his senior year, coaching junior varsity quarterbacks at Scottsdale (Ariz.) Chaparral High School. Now, Dillingham has his alma mater the closest it’s been to a national championship since the 1997 Rose Bowl Game.

Nearly three decades ago, the Peach Bowl was the site of an integral moment in the history of Arizona State football. The Sun Devils’ win over North Carolina in 1970 helped launch the Fiesta Bowl and set the wheels in motion for Arizona State’s departure from the Western Athletic Conference.

Winning the Peach Bowl again, 54 years later, could be equally monumental, given the Sun Devils come in as hefty underdogs.

Texas comes to Atlanta with one of the stingiest rushing defenses in the nation, limiting opponents to 104.2 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry. The trio of linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and edge rushers Colin Simmon and Barryn Sorrell are all adept at getting into the backfield to blow up plays before they can develop.

While Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo has been a revelation at running back, the loss of big-play wide receiver Jordan Tyson to end the regular season looms large against the Longhorns’ defense. Midnight looms for the Sun Devils’ Cinderella season in what should be the most lopsided of the four quarterfinals.

Rose Bowl Game: Oregon vs. Ohio State – Wednesday, Jan. 1

The Granddaddy of ‘Em All embarks on a new era with a classic Rose Bowl matchup pitting longtime Big Ten and Pac-12 foes head-to-head. Of course, this being the era that it is, Oregon is now Ohio State’s Big Ten counterpart, and the Ducks and Buckeyes have already faced off once before.

The Ducks’ 32-31 win in Eugene, Oregon, on Oct. 12 was arguably the best game of the regular season. Oregon needed sensational performances from each of quarterback Dillon Gabriel, running back Jordan James, and wide receiver Evan Stewart to hold off Ohio State.

The Buckeyes come into the Rose Bowl Game having effectively rebounded from their worst showing of the season—a loss to rival Michigan on Nov. 30—with their best performance in 2024, blowing out Tennessee to open the Playoff.

The Ohio State team that showed up in the 1st Round—and, in particular, the Will Howard who appeared against Tennessee—is needed in the rematch with Oregon. Howard’s 311 yards vs. the Vols were his most since passing for 326 at Autzen Stadium, when his effort gave Ohio State an opportunity to beat the Ducks.

While the Buckeyes have been dominant defensively most of the year, no defense—including Ohio State’s—has been able to contain Oregon for the better part of three months. Thus, the onus falls on Howard and an offense coordinated by former Ducks head coach Chip Kelly to keep pace.

A slow start offensively could be Ohio State’s undoing.

Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Notre Dame – Wednesday, Jan. 1

Just 14 total points separated Georgia and Notre Dame in their three previous meetings all-time. The disparity probably feels greater than that for the Fighting Irish, who have come out on the wrong end of each.

The fourth encounter between the Bulldogs and Irish, played at the site of the first game on its 44th anniversary, promises to be another fiercely contested classic. But can Notre Dame finally emerge as the winner?

The short answer is yes. This Notre Dame team has the attributes necessary to score its first win over Georgia and advance to the national semifinals. The Fighting Irish defense has depth and athleticism comparable to the best sides in the SEC—including that of Georgia.

The big question for Notre Dame, coming off an otherwise emphatic win over Indiana, is its ability to finish in the red zone. Georgia’s 47.5 percent rate of opponent touchdowns on red-zone opportunities ranks 11th nationally.

Limiting Notre Dame to field goals plays into the kind of game Georgia would prefer: a low-scoring war of attrition akin to the SEC Championship Game. The Fighting Irish can negate that by getting Jeremiyah Love going on the ground early with a big run or two—not unlike his 98-yarder to open the Playoff—or with defensive scores.

A couple of pick-sixes against Southern California to close the regular season feel noteworthy with Notre Dame facing an interception-prone quarterback.