SocGen: Short-term commerce – Sell EUR/JPY

SocGen sees selling EUR/JPY as the best short-term trade, given the divergence in Eurozone vs. Japan growth expectations. While USD/JPY remains strongly correlated to 10-year US yields, the broader JPY strength case is intact as US equities soften and Treasury yields edge lower.

Key Points:

1. Strong Correlation Between USD/JPY & US Yields

   • USD/JPY has maintained a tight correlation with 10-year US yields.
   • Relative growth expectations now matter more than relative rates.

2. EUR/JPY Disconnect from Fundamentals

   • Eurozone growth expectations are deteriorating relative to Japan.
   • Despite this, EUR/JPY is trading at the same level as a year ago, creating a misalignment.

3. Short-Term Trading Strategy

   • Given weak Eurozone growth expectations and Japan’s improving outlook, the best trade now is to short EUR/JPY.
   • The market may soon adjust to reflect the economic divergence between the Eurozone and Japan.

Conclusion:

SocGen recommends selling EUR/JPY as a short-term trade, citing the striking deterioration in Eurozone growth expectations versus Japan. Even if US yields remain rangebound, JPY strength should persist, making EUR/JPY a prime short candidate.

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