Nearly three-quarters of a century after Roger Bannister of Britain, in 1954, became the first man to run a mile in under four minutes, an achievement that many at the time thought unattainable, scientists are saying they believe a woman could now also break the barrier and further expand the limits of human possibility.
A study published in the journal Royal Society Open Science on Tuesday evening theorizes that Faith Kipyegon of Kenya, who in 2023 set the women’s world record of 4 minutes 7.64 seconds, could feasibly run a time of 3:59.37 as soon as this year by sufficiently reducing aerodynamic drag with improved drafting off pacesetters
Critics might dismiss a woman’s bid for a four-minute mile as unlikely, a publicity stunt or a mere lab experiment. But the study’s authors believe a successful try would erase a mental barrier, inspire other women and become a symbolic achievement in a race where running four laps of a track, in just under one minute per lap, still holds a kind of mythical allure.
“A lot of people said it was physiologically impossible for Bannister or anybody to break four minutes, and I’m sure lots of bros are going to say, ‘No way a woman is ever going to run four minutes; it’s seven seconds away,’” said Rodger Kram, a biomechanist and emeritus professor at the University of Colorado and one of the authors of the study. “But people have said women can’t do a lot of things, and then they have.”
What is not yet known is whether Kipyegon would be interested in the challenge. Kram said he was sending a copy of the study to her and her coach. Kipyegon could not be reached for comment on Tuesday. Her agent was said to be traveling and unavailable for an interview.
The study posits that the best chance for Kipyegon to break four minutes would be via drafting, or the use of pacesetters to to help reduce wind resistance, with one pacesetter in front of her and another in back for the first half of the race. Those pacers would be substituted with two different escorts for the final two laps.
It may also be possible, researchers say, that Kipyegon could run a sub-four-minute mile without subbing out her pacesetters, if they were also some of the world’s top female middle-distance runners. That method, if successful, would qualify as an official world record.
Drafting in a formation of other runners allows a record-seeking athlete to run faster while using the same amount of energy.
The tactic of switching out pacesetters was used by Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya in breaking the two-hour barrier in the marathon in 2019. Kipchoge’s time of 1 hour 59 minutes 40 seconds in Vienna did not qualify as a world record because the rotation of pacers is not permitted under the rules of World Athletics, track and field’s global governing body.
“If we did have to do some orchestrated track race, where we put in fresh pacers halfway through, I think it would be fine in showing that it was physiologically possible,” said Shalaya Kipp, another author of the study and a postdoctoral research fellow in exercise physiology at the Mayo Clinic.
Still, the study is sure to be greeted by skeptics. Ray Flynn, a two-time Olympian from Ireland who ran 89 sub-four-minute miles and is now a prominent agent and meet director, called Kipyegon “magnificent and brilliant” but said he didn’t think it was physiologically possible for her or another woman to break four minutes without additional advances in shoe technology. He noted that Kipyegon would have to essentially run two seconds faster per lap to go under four minutes.
“It’s romantic to think about it, but let’s be real,” Flynn said in an interview on Tuesday.
More than 2,000 elite-level men have run a mile under four minutes, as have more than two dozen American high school runners.
The advent of so-called super spikes, with enhanced foam cushioning and springy carbon-fiber plates, along with advances in the construction of tracks have helped make sub-four miles more common. And the ingestion of baking soda, or sodium bicarbonate, a legal technique that helps buffer acidity and neutralize interference with muscle contractions, is also widely used for short, intense races like the mile.
Running a sub-four mile remains the next frontier challenge for female middle-distance runners. For decades, women have had to battle doubt and discrimination by officials who once felt they lacked strength and stamina, and could even harm their chances at reproduction if they performed fierce exertion.
Women were not allowed to run farther than 200 meters at the Olympics between 1932 and 1960 after some participants seemed exhausted after an 800-meter race at the 1928 Amsterdam Games. A marathon for women was not held in the Olympics until the 1984 Games in Los Angeles.
A sub-four mile by a woman could be “another nail in the coffin” against bias, Dr. Kipp said, and further affirmation that “women are very capable and we don’t need to worry about these kind of things.”
The authors of the study concede that a sub-four mile would have to be achieved in ideal conditions, among them a lack of wind. And it may not be easy to find pacemakers who could keep up with Kipyegon.
No woman has come within four seconds of her mile record of 4:07.64. When she set the record in Monaco in 2023, she ran her fourth lap alone, which nullified any potential help from drafting.
Ideally, the study says, one female pacer would run 1.3 meters ahead of Kipyegon, helping to deflect what would essentially be a 15-mile-an-hour wind at that racing speed. A second pacer would run 1.3 meters behind, pushing air molecules toward Kipyegon’s back and providing an additional reduction of aerodynamic drag.
It would also be possible to attempt to break the four-minute mark using two elite male athletes to pace Kipyegon the entire way, the study says, but that would not conform to an official record for a women-only race.
An all-female team of pacers would have “a lot of benefits psychologically and sociologically,” Dr. Kram said. “I think it would be really cool to see women alone do it.”
