Fundamental
Overview
Gold extended the rally into even higher highs recently as the bullish
momentum remained strong. In the bigger picture, as long as the Fed doesn’t
change its reaction function and doesn’t mention rate hikes, the trend should
remain to the upside as real yields will continue to fall unless we get another
strong growth scare.
Today all eyes will be on the FOMC Policy Decision where the Fed is
expected to keep rates unchanged. The markets will focus particularly on the
Dot Plot to see if the central bank revises the expected rate cuts in 2025 from
two to three and if Fed Chair Powell offers some support. Another stock market selloff could weigh on gold in the short-term.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold extended to even higher highs in the past days as the bullish
momentum remained strong. From a risk management perspective though, the buyers
will have a better risk to reward setup around the 2955 level to position for
further upside, while the sellers will want to see the price falling below that
level to start targeting a deeper pullback into the 2832 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a steep upward trendline defining the current momentum.
The buyers will likely continue to lean on it to keep pushing into new highs,
while the sellers will look for a break lower to position for the pullback into
the 2955 level.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a rejection around
the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break lower. The red lines
define the average daily range for today
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the FOMC Policy Decision. Tomorrow,
we get the US Jobless Claims figures.
