Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on April 30 and May 1, 2025

Headlines via Reuters:

One member said: BOJ likely to keep raising interest rates in accordance with improvements in economy, prices
One member said: No change to BOJ’s rate-hike stance as real interest rates deeply negative but must scrutinise risks
One member said: Uncertainty surrounding economy, price outlook high, likelihood of achieving price goal not as high as in past
One member said: BoJ has little choice but to take wait-and-see stance until developments surrounding U.S. trade policy stabilise to some extent
One member said: BoJ will enter temporary pause in rate hikes but shouldn’t slide into excessive pessimism, must guide policy nimbly and flexibly
One member said: Chance of Japan’s underlying inflation faltering is small
One member said: U.S. trade policy development could turn positive or negative any time, which means BOJ’s policy path could change any time as well
One member said: Our projections have been severely jolted by US trade policy with higher US tariffs likely to weigh on Japan’s economy, prices
One member said: Must be mindful of upside risks to prices if global supply chains are disrupted
One member said: From long-term perspective, U.S. tariff policy and ensuing uncertainty likely won’t affect Japan’s underlying inflation, potential growth rate

Putting all of this together it appears the BoJ is intent on hiking rates, but the question is when. Given the developments over the weekend, is the 90-day trim-and-pause with China enough to give the BoJ confidence to hike?

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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases a “Summary of Opinions” after each monetary policy meeting. It serves as a record of the discussion and views of the Policy Board members on various economic and financial issues.

Key points about the Summary:

The summary includes the views of the Policy Board members on economic conditions, both domestically and globally. This includes assessments of economic growth, inflation, and employment trends, among other indicators.
The summary also outlines the Policy Board members’ views on the effectiveness of the BOJ’s current monetary policy measures, including interest rate policy, asset purchases, and yield curve control. Members may discuss the pros and cons of these policies and their potential impact on the economy.
The summary includes discussions on the outlook for monetary policy and the potential risks to the economy. Board members may express their views on the appropriate timing and direction of future policy changes, as well as the potential impact of external factors such as global economic conditions.
The summary also includes any dissenting views among the Policy Board members. If a member disagrees with the majority view on a particular issue, they may express their own opinion and rationale.

In a few week’s time we’ll get the Minutes of this meeting. The Minutes are a more detailed record of the discussions and decisions made during the meeting.

The Minutes include a more complete record of the views expressed, including any dissents or alternative opinions that may not be included in the summary.
The Summary of Opinions is typically released a few days after the policy meeting, while the Minutes are published about a month later. This means that the Summary of Opinions can provide more up-to-date information on the BOJ’s current stance and view on the economy and monetary policy.
The Summary of Opinions is usually written in a more accessible language, making it easier to understand the BOJ’s views on monetary policy.
The Minutes, on the other hand, are often more technical and may require a deeper understanding of economics and financial markets.
The Summary of Opinions is typically shorter than the Minutes.

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