- 59 of 62 economists (95%) see no change to interest rates in June meeting
- 39 of 58 economists (67%) see interest rates staying unchanged in Q3 (previously 36%)
- 30 of 58 economists (52%) see at least one more rate hike by year-end
- The median prediction for end-September rate is now 0.50% (previously 0.75%)
- The median prediction for year-end rate is 0.75% (unchanged)
- 16 of 29 economists (55%) either strongly or somewhat approve of the Japanese government’s approach to tariff negotiations with the US
In terms of market pricing, traders are seeing ~98% odds of no change in the upcoming meeting in June. As for the year itself, there’s only ~17 bps priced in currently by the final meeting in December. So, that fits with the above view somewhat – at least through Q3.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
