What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in May? Polymarket Bets Provide Insight
Bitcoin Price Prediction for End of May 2025
As investors and traders navigate the volatile crypto market, many ask, “What price will Bitcoin hit in May?” Prediction markets such as Polymarket have gained popularity by offering speculative insight through aggregated bets, potentially indicating the market’s collective sentiment.
Currently, Polymarket’s betting data for Bitcoin’s price by the end of May shows significant predictions:
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Below $80k: 2% probability
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$85k: 5% probability
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$90k: 11% probability
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$110k: 38% probability (highest probability)
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$115k: 15% probability
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$125k: 2% probability
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$150k: 1% probability
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$200k: less than 1% probability
Interestingly, the strongest sentiment among bettors anticipates Bitcoin will reach around $110,000 by the month’s end, reflected in a notable 38% likelihood.
Is Polymarket Accurate in Predicting Bitcoin Prices?
Polymarket’s accuracy has been the subject of research. A recent study from CoinDesk (www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/21/polymarket-is-94-accurate-in-predicting-world-events-research) suggests Polymarket is approximately 94% accurate when predicting outcomes within hours of resolution. Even one month in advance, its accuracy remains impressively high, above 90%.
Yet, the predictive strength varies significantly with longer-term forecasts. CoinCodex (https://www.coincodex.com/article/65963/is-polymarket-accurate) highlights that accuracy diminishes as the prediction timeframe extends, due to increased unpredictability and market volatility.
Cautions for Investors
Despite its strengths, bettors should be aware that Polymarket reflects sentiment rather than guaranteed outcomes. Additionally, a Medium article (medium.com/@balajibal/why-are-polymarket-betters-losing-money-af3cc506fd9a) highlights that the majority of bettors typically experience losses, underscoring the speculative nature of these bets.
Using Polymarket as a Sentiment Gauge
While not a crystal ball, Polymarket provides a useful barometer of market expectations. Traders and investors can combine Polymarket insights with technical and fundamental analysis for a comprehensive approach.
As May progresses, Bitcoin watchers can continue monitoring Polymarket’s evolving probabilities to better understand where collective market sentiment might push prices.
Bitcoin Price Forecast for the End of May 2025 is Apx. $110k (… but do not take any of this as a guarantee!)
So, what price will Bitcoin hit in May? While no method guarantees results, Polymarket’s current sentiment strongly suggests a target near $110,000. Investors are encouraged to use this insight prudently alongside broader market analysis.
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