Of the 14 main presidential polls taken previously month, President Biden leads in 9 of them, which means that it’s inaccurate to counsel that Trump is main the 2024 election.
Simon Rosenberg tweeted:
There are actually 14 latest polls with Biden tied/main. 9 have Biden leads:
47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
49-48 Monmouth
49-48 NPR/Marist
42-41 & 44-42 YouGov/Economist
39-37 YouGov
40-36 & 37-35 Leger
Reuters = Biden +4 in battlegrounds— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) December 20, 2023
Vital Disclaimer: Particular numbers are meaningless this far out from an election. Take note of the final shifts, not the horserace numbers that the media likes to concentrate on.
Polls individually are fuzzy and never very reliable at this stage, however the one factor that may be gleaned from dozens of polls is the final course that an election is transferring in, even at this very early stage.
There isn’t a proof {that a} majority of voters need Trump again within the White Home.
The large driver of voter discontent has seemed to be inflation and the economic system. Over the previous month, Biden has gotten excellent news throughout the board on these fronts. Inflation is coming down. Gasoline costs have been dropping. Individuals are beginning to really feel optimistic concerning the economic system.
One thing else occurred over the previous month that additionally deserves consideration. Donald Trump got here out of hiding and began doing extra nationwide media. As voters are getting a dose of Trump’s racism, fascism, and extremism that he has turned as much as 11 for 2024, they look like remembering why they tossed the man out on his ear within the first place.
All presidential elections for greater than a era have been shut. It doesn’t matter what occurs with Trump’s legal circumstances, voters ought to put together for an in depth election.
Nevertheless, the concepts that Biden is in large hassle, or Trump is main are outdated media frames. Trump is already shedding momentum, as there’s something taking place with the voters that must be intently monitored over the approaching months.
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Jason is the managing editor. He’s additionally a White Home Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Diploma in Political Science. His graduate work targeted on public coverage, with a specialization in social reform actions.
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