That will be the main items on the economic calendar in European trading later today. But barring any surprises, the inflation numbers aren’t going to make a splash on the outlook through the summer. As things stand, traders are seeing ~85% odds of the ECB keeping key rates on hold in July with ~52% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for September. By year-end, traders are only pricing in ~26 bps of rate cuts i.e. one more rate cut only. So, that’s the backdrop as we navigate through the releases later today.
- 0645 GMT – France June preliminary CPI figures
- 0700 GMT – Spain June preliminary CPI figures
The estimate is for French headline annual inflation to come in at 0.7% (unchanged from May). Meanwhile, Spanish headline annual inflation is estimated to be 2.0% (unchanged from May).
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