Gold Technical Analysis – Awaiting new catalysts for course

Fundamental
Overview

Not much has happened since
the end of the Israel-Iran conflict which caused the geopolitical risk premium
to vanish and weighed on gold as the safe haven flows reversed further. The
price action remains mostly rangebound as we await the next catalysts to get a
direction.

In the bigger picture, gold
remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed
easing and just a hawkish repricing in rate cuts expectations could trigger
corrections in the short term.

The economic data in the
next months will be particularly important for the gold market as Fed members
sound inclined to cut earlier than expected or even more if the inflation data
remains soft or the labour market data deteriorates further.

Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that gold continues to edge lower towards the major trendline. That’s where we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a
rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3120 level
next.

Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. From
a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward
setup around the trendline to position for a break below the major upward trendline.
The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the
bullish bets into new highs.

Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have yet other minor trendline defining the bearish momentum on
this timeframe. Again, the sellers would be better off leaning on the trendline
with a defined risk above it to position for a break below the major trendline,
while the buyers will target breakouts to increase the bullish bets into new
highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index and
the Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

Later this year,
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