Clayton Kershaw Might Be the Last Man in Baseball’s 3,000 Strikeout Club

Clayton Kershaw recorded his 3,000th career strikeout Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium, becoming the 20th pitcher in Major League Baseball history to do so.

Whenever a longtime great reaches a career milestone like this—especially a pitcher—people reflexively wonder if it’s the last one.

In Kershaw’s case, with 3,000 strikeouts, he just might be.

Even though the modern game produces more strikeouts than ever, they tend to be spread out among the myriad bullpen arms who throw 100 mph or faster. The way MLB teams treat starting pitchers these days, going seven innings seems like a lot. Any path to 3,000 strikeouts for most active players is going to be a narrow one.

The next pitcher with a chance is left-hander Chris Sale, who has 2,528 strikeouts and is about a year younger than Kershaw. He’s currently on the injured list with a broken rib, sustained recently on a diving fielding attempt. He’s not expected to return until late August, so that’s going to cost him a few dozen Ks. To reach 3,000, Sale likely will need to pitch well beyond Kershaw’s approaching expiration date.

One factor in Sale’s favor: He is a better pitcher than Kershaw right now. He won the NL Cy Young in 2024 and had 114 strikeouts with a 2.52 ERA in 89 1/3 innings before his injury, so he was performing like someone with a shot. But, similarly to Kershaw, he hasn’t made 30 starts in a season since 2017.

A lot needed to go right for Kershaw to do it—even if he’s considered one of the 10 or 15 best starting pitchers of all time. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said before the game he would give Kershaw, who turned 37 years old in March, every reasonable opportunity to make it happen in front of the home crowd.

It took a season-high 100 pitches for Kershaw to pick up the three strikeouts he needed, but he got there. He also allowed four runs and nine hits, leaving the game trailing the White Sox by two runs through six innings. The Dodgers rallied in the bottom of the ninth to win 5–4.

It was no small consideration for Roberts to extend Kershaw in order to celebrate a historic achievement. The Dodgers have multiple starting pitchers on the injured list, and pushing Kershaw in July—even a little—carries some risk. Kershaw seemed to get through the start healthy enough, though the frailty inherent in playing baseball showed up when slugger Max Muncy injured his knee playing third base and had to be helped off the field. Not what the Dodgers needed, and certainly something on their minds, even as they celebrated Kershaw’s achievement.

It wasn’t only the last leg to 3,000 Ks that took some tightrope walking for Kershaw. It’s been a slog lately. He has made a combined 16 starts the past two seasons because of injuries, and he hasn’t made as many as 30 starts since 2015. Kershaw seemingly has put everything he has into getting this far.

If you look at the list of active pitchers and their career strikeouts, the only other with a possible impending shot at 3,000 is Gerrit Cole. He needs 749 but is about to turn 34 and is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Charlie Morton has 2,124 strikeouts but will turn 42 in November. Yu Darvish is the only other active pitcher with as many as 2,007 strikeouts, but he’s been injured this season and will be 39 next month.

Another candidate who might come to mind, left-hander Tarik Skubal, has 786 strikeouts in 680 1/3 innings. But he turns 29 in November and has yet to pitch 200 innings in a season. He can’t be considered anything but a dark horse, in part because he debuted when he was nearing 24.

That’s key for Kershaw and Sale: They both started young. Kershaw made his debut with the Dodgers about two months after his 20th birthday in 2008. Sale joined the White Sox in 2010 when he was 21.

If you’re looking to Paul Skenes, who debuted at 21 and just turned 23, he could be the guy—in 15 years. So many things have to happen, and not happen, for him to reach 3,000 strikeouts. He’s not even at 300 yet.

When thinking about any young pitching phenom, the career of Jacob deGrom comes to mind. One of the best pitchers of his generation, deGrom debuted at nearly 26, has been injury plagued, just turned 37, and is 1,234 strikeouts short of 3,000. Not going to happen.

There’s a good reason Kershaw is only the 20th person to do this: Pitching well enough and long enough to reach 3,000 strikeouts is some kind of needle to thread.