USDJPY strikes above the 38.2% of the transfer down from the 2025 buying and selling vary

The USDJPY has moved above the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 trading range, measured from the January 10 high to the April 22 low. That retracement level comes in at 147.135, and it’s aligned with a key swing area between 147.014 and 147.338. The pair has extended to a high of 147.515, marking the third attempt to break and hold above this level since the April low.

Previous moves above the 38.2% retracement—on May 12 and June 23—ultimately failed to hold, but this renewed push gives buyers another opportunity to seize control. From a technical perspective, staying above 147.135 is now critical. If that support holds, upside targets include the June high at 148.019, followed by the May high at 148.647, which sits within a notable swing area between 148.56 and 148.724 (highlighted by red circles on the chart). That swing area increases the May highs importance

The market is once again testing the waters for a bullish breakout. The question now is: Will buyers finally maintain momentum above the 38.2% retracement, or will this be another failed attempt? The close risk level for USD bulls is clear—hold above 147.135 to keep the bullish case alive.

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