China’s economy likely grew slightly above the government’s annual target in the second quarter according to the Bloomberg survey of analyst expectations.

Bloomberg is gated, but in brief:

Bloomberg’s survey forecasting a 5.1% year-on-year GDP increase for the quarter ending in June

Growth was supported by

strong export performance, aided by a trade truce with the U.S.,
continued fiscal measures to bolster domestic demand

As a result, many economists believe Beijing may pause additional stimulus for now.

However, Citi and Nomura anticipate further policy easing later in the year, projecting a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reduction in banks’ reserve requirements, as the effects of earlier stimulus and front-loaded exports begin to wane in the second half.

—

the data is due on Tuesday, July 15, 2025 at

0200 GMT
2200 US Eastern time (on Monday, July 14, 2025)

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