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US pending house gross sales for July -0.4% versus -0.1% estimate

  • Prior month -0.8%
  • Pending home sales change month on month -0.4% versus -0.1% estimate
  • Pending home sales index 71.7 versus 72.0 last month.
  • YoY +0.7%

Regionally:

  • Northeast -0.6%
  • West +3.7%
  • Midwest -4%
  • South -0.1%

REALTORS® Confidence Index survey shows that 16% of NAR members expect an increase in buyer traffic over the next three months, unchanged from one year ago. Meanwhile, 21% expect an increase in seller traffic, up from 17% in July 2024.

The pending home sales are based on signed contracts. Redfin recently reported that 15% of signed contracts have been canceled – an all-time high level.

National Association of Realtor chief economist Lawrence Yun commented:

  • Even with modest improvements in mortgage rates, housing affordability, and inventory, buyers still remain hesitant.
  • Buying a home is often the most expensive purchase people will make in their lives. This means that going under contract is not a decision home buyers make quickly. Instead, people take their time to ensure the timing and home are right for them.
  • Rising mortgage applications for home purchase are an early indicator of more serious buyers in the marketplace, though many have not yet committed to a pending contract.
  • The Federal Reserve signaling that they may enact a lower interest rate policy should steadily enlarge the pool of eligible home buyers in the upcoming months.

Looking at the long-term chart below, the index of pending home sales is scraping along the bottom as high rates, prices, supply keep the numbers low. Also went mortgage rates declined sharply after Covid, many homeowners are locked into much lower rates do not have the incentive to sell.

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