The USDCHF is easing lower after yesterday’s sharp surge to the upside. The pullback has carried the pair back under a swing area between 0.7986 and 0.7994, shifting the near-term tone.
The correction now puts focus on the 61.8% retracement of the September downswing, which comes in at 0.79784. A move below this retracement level would open the door for further downside pressure and give sellers more momentum to press the correction.
For now, sellers are making a play, but they still have work to do to truly regain control. Holding below the 61.8% retracement is the first step, but sustained momentum is required to tilt the bias firmly their way.
On the topside, buyers would need to reclaim key broken levels — particularly the 0.7986–0.7994 swing zone — to reassert control. A firm push back above that area would signal that the bullish trend remains intact and that buyers are intent on extending USD gains.
In the video above, I walk through these technical dynamics in detail, highlighting the downside risks if sellers succeed and the upside levels that buyers need to break to prove they are still in charge.
