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USDCAD Technicals: USDCAD assessments the highs from final week at 1.39575.

The USDCAD has pushed higher in the North American session, extending its gains and now testing the high from last week at 1.39575. Earlier in the move, the pair broke through resistance at 1.3938, which had capped price action earlier this week. That break was significant because, up until today, the market had been confined to a narrow range between 1.38957 and 1.3938 (43 pips) — a box that had limited momentum and kept traders on edge. The upside break has finally released the pressure, opening the door for further gains.

That said, the path higher is not without challenges. The immediate test is the 1.39575 high from last week, which stands as a natural barrier where sellers may look to defend. Just above sits an even more critical hurdle: the falling 200-day moving average at 1.3966. This level is particularly important because the last time USDCAD traded above its 200-day moving average was back in April, making it a long-standing hurdle for the broader trend.

If buyers can sustain momentum above 1.39575 and then break through the 200-day moving average at 1.3966, it would mark a decisive shift in the technical landscape and strengthen the bullish bias. Until that occurs, however, these levels remain potential selling zones where traders may continue to probe for a top. The battle between buyers pressing for a breakout and sellers leaning against key resistance is now set to define the next phase for USDCAD.

A break of the 200 day moving average would have traders looking toward a swing area in the 38.2% retracement near 1.40212. You would have to expect that the natural resistance at 1.400 would also be a target that would give buyers more confidence on a break.

Close support would be the old high for the week at 1.39388. There could be short-term disappointment on the failure of the break to new highs this week. Be aware.

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