In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than the final PMI readings for the largest Eurozone economies and the UK. We will also get a couple of low tier data like the Italian Retail Sales and the Eurozone PPI but none of them will change anything for the ECB or the BoE.
In the American session, we have the Canadian Services PMI and the US ISM Services PMI. We were supposed to have the US NFP report today but given the US government shutdown, the release will be delayed until further notice. The Canadian PMI is rarely a market-moving release and it won’t change anything for the BoC anyway as they are focused more on the labour market and inflation data.
The US ISM Services PMI is expected at 51.7 vs 52.0 prior. The market today will likely focus more on the employment and price indices in the ISM report given the lack of government data. The combination of higher employment and lower price indices in the ISM Manufacturing PMI two days ago helped risk assets.
The S&P Global US Services PMI showed some cooling in September with “weakened expansion and slower hiring”. Moreover, the agency reported that “tariffs were again widely cited as the main
cause of sharply higher costs, but weaker demand and stiff
competition reportedly limited the scope to raise selling
prices, which rose on average at the slowest rate since April.” Finally, they added that “business confidence in the outlook
improved, partly reflecting hopes that lower interest rates
will help offset some of the anticipated impacts from tariffs
and broader policy uncertainty.”
Central bank speakers:
- 09:40 GMT/05:40 ET – ECB President Lagarde (neutral – voter)
- 10:05 GMT/06:05 ET – Fed’s Williams (neutral – voter)
- 13:20 GMT/09:20 ET – Boe Governor Bailey (dovish – voter)
- 13:50 GMT/09:50 ET – ECB’s Schnabel (hawkish – voter)
- 17:40 GMT/13:40 ET – Fed’s Jefferson (neutral – voter)
