It’s the first Friday of the month and normally that’s a big one for markets as it means the non-farm payrolls report is released. Unfortunately, that won’t be happening today due to the US government shutdown.
It’s a uniquely American phenomenon and utterly ridiculous as politicians on both sides continue to care about fiscal prudence while blowing out the deficit relentlessly. Trump yesterday floated $1000-$2000 tariff rebates for taxpayers due to tariffs and he’s already pledged farmer bailouts — all with money that was supposed to pay down deficits.
For what it’s worth, the consensus on non-farm payrolls is +50K and there’s been a quick realization that’s about all the US needs to keep unemployment steady due to changes to immigration and demographics. But that number is more art then science and the real number to watch going forward will be the unemployment rate, which was slated to remain steady at 4.3%.
The good news is that the ISM services report is still coming out at 10 am ET. The employment component of that survey can be a decent correlate to jobs growth, though that correlation has been spotty since covid.
Happy Friday.
