The AUDUSD began the week on the defensive, touching the week’s low during Monday’s Asian Pacific session. From there, the pair quickly recovered, pushing back above the 50% retracement of the move up from the August 21 low to the September 17 high, which sits at 0.65603. That level acted as a base of support, and holding above it shifted the short-term bias more to the upside.
Since that rebound, price action has largely consolidated within a defined range between 0.65735 on the downside and 0.66278 on the upside – the latter marking Wednesday’s high. Importantly, the market has repeatedly found resistance near the 0.6624–0.66278 zone, with highs on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday all stalling in that area. This triple top effectively establishes a clear ceiling that traders will be watching closely into the new trading week (unless broken today with momentum).
On Thursday, sellers attempted to wrestle back control. The pair slipped below a cluster of key technical levels, including the 38.2% retracement at 0.65948 and both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. However, the breakdown failed to gain traction. Sellers could not sustain the downside momentum, and price quickly rotated back higher, underscoring the resilience of buyers.
Today, the low price found support just above the 200-hour moving average at 0.65875, before bouncing higher. The recovery has since carried the pair back above the 38.2% retracement at 0.65948 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.66016. The pair is currently trading near 0.6606, with intraday momentum leaning back in favor of the buyers.
Looking ahead, the cluster of support between 0.65875–0.6602 will serve as the barometer for short-term bias. As long as price holds above this zone, buyers remain in control, with scope for a retest of the week’s highs near 0.6628 and the top of the swing area at 0.6635. A clean break above that ceiling would strengthen the bullish outlook further. Conversely, a move back below the 200-hour moving average would hand control back to sellers and shift focus toward the 50% midpoint at 0.65603 as the next key downside target.