Goldman Sachs data tracking S&P 500 companies with the highest domestic revenue exposure versus those with the greatest international exposure shows the domestic cohort has dropped to its weakest relative level since 2010.
The ratio’s steady decline through 2024–2025 underscores how investors have favoured multinationals benefiting from a softer dollar, stronger global demand, and overseas tech growth. By contrast, US-centric firms—often concentrated in utilities, regional banks, and small-cap consumer names—have underperformed amid sluggish domestic spending and margin compression.
Analysts say the trend highlights a key shift in earnings leadership back toward exporters and global tech giants, reversing much of the post-pandemic period when US-focused companies dominated.
I’m just gonna wonder out loud if this is in any way linked to concerns about a US recession.