New Zealand September Manufacturing PMI 49.9 (prior 49.9)

BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI September 2025: 49.9 …………. close to expansion but no cigar

New Zealand’s Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) was unchanged at 49.9 in September, signalling continued contraction and a lack of momentum in the sector. The PMI averaged 50.9 in Q3, only marginally better than Q2’s 49.9, underscoring that the recovery remains tentative despite forecasts for a Q3 rebound.

The details were mixed:

• production rose slightly to 50.1
• but new orders slipped to 50.3, erasing the prior month’s strength
• Four of the five sub-indices are hovering near the neutral 50 level.

The latest QSBO showed manufacturers pessimistic about recent output but more upbeat about the next three months, suggesting tentative signs of a turning point.

Employment remains the weak spot, with the PMI jobs index falling to 47.5, consistent with further labour shedding even as hiring expectations in other surveys show some optimism.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 50 basis-point rate cut this week, taking the Official Cash Rate to 2.5%, and an expected final 25 bp cut in November should support the sector, though manufacturing activity still looks soft relative to hopes for a stronger H2 recovery.