MLB Best Bets: NLDS Game 5 Tigers vs. Mariners

There’s no tomorrow for one of these teams!…Well, that’s an overstatement, but someone’s season will end here. Let’s take a look.

Season Record: 22-21-2, -.67 Units

Tigers at Mariners Game 5 Best Bets

Over 5.5 Runs (-120 BetMGM)
(Mariners to win their series already in the account)

If you are a baseball fan without ties to either the Tigers or Mariners, you could not ask for much more than this. One single elimination game for the right to face the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS. The Tigers will start Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in baseball, while the Mariners will start George Kirby and very likely will turn to Luis Castillo at some juncture later in the game. Sign me up!

Skubal has lost just 6 games in the regular season, but somehow 2 were to the Mariners. He did not pitch all that well either time, yielding 7 runs, 7 hits, and 5 walks in 10.2 IP. He then faced them in Game 2 of this series last Sunday and gave up 2 homers to Jorge Polanco, and not much else. In 7 IP he struck out 9, walked 1, and gave up 5 total hits and those two runs and left with a no decision.

Kirby had a late start to the 2025 season and did not have a great overall year. He did really get it together down the stretch though. In his last 3 regular season starts he had a 2.08 ERA and 0.69 WHIP over 17.1 IP with 31 K’s (48.4%) vs just 1 walk. He faced the Tigers in Game 1 and went 5 IP with 8 K’s and 1 walk. But alas, he gave up 6 hits, one of which was a two-run homer to Kerry Carpenter.

Carpenter poses a huge obstacle for Kirby as he’s gone 5 for 11 against him in his career. Remarkably, all 5 of those hits left the yard. He batted in the number 2 hole in Game 1, so expect to see him either there or at leadoff. That likely puts a cap on the length of Kirby’s outing as there’s virtually no chance he faces “Kerry Bonds” a third time if it’s a close game at that point.

Fortunately for Seattle, they have Luis Castillo available on regular rest, and like Kirby, he caught fire late in the season with a 1.07 ERA and 0.51 WHIP in his last 4 starts. He went 4.2 shutout innings in Game 2 with just 1 hit, but he did walk 4 Tigers. While Castillo will almost certainly appear, it’s possible the Mariners initially replace Kirby with one of their lefty relievers to face Carpenter and/or Riley Greene in the middle of the game.

With the day off, we get two fully available bullpens, although with Skubal on one side and the Kirby-Castillo combo on the other, we probably don’t see enormous pen usage. That’s really helpful as both teams have seen shaky relief outings from their middle guys. FWIW, Logan Gilbert pitched on Wednesday and might have an inning or so in his arm if the Mariners need to go that route.

With all this pitching excellence, why go with the over? Well, it’s just the number; specifically 5.5. Not much has to go right for one of these offenses to get the game above that. One hiccup from any of the above could prove costly as both teams have enough hitters with pop to make them pay for a mistake. Specifically, Carpenter and Greene on the Tigers and Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Jorge Polanco have all gone deep so far in the series.