Oct 5, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass against the Washington Commanders in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images The Los Angeles Chargers will host the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football this week.
Both teams have struggled with injuries, and they’ve disappointed a bit throughout the season. Los Angeles enters this game with a 4-3 record, while Minnesota owns a 3-3 record.
The Vikings have quietly found plenty of defensive success this season, but I expect that to change in this game. Minnesota’s performed well against the run, which has worked for their style of defense. Opponents are throwing only 51% of the time against them, which is one of the lowest rates in the NFL.
The Chargers aren’t a team that is going to focus heavily on the run, though. They’re throwing the ball 65% of the time in 2025, which is the third-highest rate in the NFL. Los Angeles also relies on their passing game at an elite rate regardless of the situation.
Although teams haven’t found a ton of overall success through the air against Minnesota, they have struggled on a per-pass basis. The Vikings are giving up the ninth-most yards per attempt (7.5) in 2025. They’ve also given up 75% of their defensive touchdowns via the pass this season.
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Los Angeles has struggled with pressure this season, but they continue to focus on the pass. They have a plethora of injuries at running back, meaning they’re likely to force the ball into Justin Herbert’s hands. The biggest key to this game is that Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins could return from injury to help stifle the Minnesota pass rush.
The easiest way to beat Los Angeles is on the ground, but that could prove to be difficult for Minnesota in this game. Unlike the Vikings, the Chargers force opponents to throw at a higher rate (58.2%). The Vikings are also willing to rely on their quarterback, as they rank 24th in the NFL in run rate (40.2%).
This is a situation where Los Angeles could be playing toward their strength, while Minnesota plays toward their weaknesses. Add in that the Chargers are playing at home, and they have a clear edge here. Simply put, I much prefer backing Herbert than Wentz, considering all outside factors.
I wouldn’t make this best at any number wider than 3 points, though, as I’d want to tie with a game-winning field goal.
Where to Bet: Los Angeles Chargers -3 spread | -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook
2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 12-18
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