Dallas Cowboys owner, president and general manager Jerry Jones with cornerback Trevon Diggs (7) on the field prior to a game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images The Dallas Cowboys will host the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football in Week 9. We’ve seen a Jekyll and Hyde season from Dallas, as they enter this game with a 3-4-1 record. Arizona started hot, but they’ve been struggling recently, posting a 2-5 record thus far.
The Cowboys feature one of the best offenses in the NFL. They’ve dealt with key injuries, including to CeeDee Lamb, but they still rank third in points (.478) per play. That number jumps to .585 at home. Overall, the Cowboys are averaging 30.8 points per game [41.3 points per game at home] in 2025.
The Cardinals aren’t a walk in the park defensively, though. They rank 10th in the NFL in points allowed (.344) per play this season. They’re also allowing only 22 points per game overall through seven games.
Truthfully, I have very few concerns about Dallas’ offense. They have several elite players, and they’ve consistently found success against solid defenses. The Cowboys have only played three games at home in 2025, and they’ve scored 40+ points in each game [one was an overtime game].
This spread will come down to Arizona’s offense against Dallas’ defense. It’s the battle of bad, and one has to win.
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The Cardinals rank 22nd in the NFL in points (.347) per play, and that number drops to .318 on the road. They’ll also be without Kyler Murray, which is likely a small loss to them offensively. Jacoby Brissett hasn’t looked terrible, but he also hasn’t looked like a quarterback who will score 40 points in a game.
Granted, the Cowboys feature an atrocious defense. They’re allowing the second-most points (.480) per play this season. They’re also giving up a ridiculous 31.3 points per game in 2025.
There’s one very specific key as to why I prefer Dallas in this situation. They’re getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks at an outstanding rate. Their defense as a whole is atrocious, but they can make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable.
Brissett isn’t a quarterback who is going to find a ton of success when he’s under pressure. He’s facing pressure on nearly 50% of his dropbacks this season, and he’s averaging only 5.5 yards per attempt in that situation. He also hasn’t thrown a touchdown while under pressure.
The Cardinals have played teams hard this season, but they always fall slightly short. I’m not entirely sure they’re going to be able to keep up with the Cowboys in this type of game.
Where to Bet: Dallas Cowboys -3 spread | -115 at Bet365
2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 14-20
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