Wednesday NHL Best Bets: November fifth’s Expert Hockey Betting Picks

It’s a relatively quiet night on the ice tonight with only 5 games on tap, but let’s try to find a few winners!

NHL Season Stats: 2-2 (0.41 Units)

San Jose Sharks at Seattle Kraken Under 6.5 (-120 bet365)

Beware the Kraken! Or something like that. They’ve gotten off to a nice start this season at 6-2-4, with 16 points in 12 games. Its mostly thanks to goal prevention as they’ve yielded just 2.6 actual goals per 60 minutes and 2.73 xG/60. Goalie Joey Daccord is expected to get the start, and he’s played well this year with a 91% Save% and 3.85 Goals Saved Above Expected.

Further, Seattle has also trended to “pitchers duels” lately as 5 of their last 6 games have seen 5 total goals or less. And the Kraken are particularly stingy at home as they’ve allowed just 6 goals in 6 games. Daccord clearly sees the puck well in his friendly environs as he has a 93.1% Save% and league best 5.80 GSAA in home games. Unders have hit in 5 of the 6 Kraken home games.

The big risk in this play is the opposition. Seattle has a very mediocre offense with a 2.64 actual goals and 2.68 expected goals per 60 minutes, but the Sharks have trouble keeping the puck out of the net with a league worst 3.93 goals allowed per 60. Young Shark stars Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith have flown out of the game this year, but I say the Kraken D keeps them in relative check and the game stays under.

Chicago Black Hawks at Vancouver Canucks ½ unit Canucks -3.5 (+720 FanDuel)

Our Deadspin Picks+ service has shows EV in both of these, namely 14% on the Leafs and 13.75 on the Canucks.

Is either likely? Of course not, that’s why we get the big plus odds. Toronto has meandered through the early part of the season while their rabid fan base turned their attention to the Blue Jays. But on Monday they had their best showing of the season, or at least best period. They erased a 3-0 Penguin lead heading into the 3rd period and stormed back and won 4-3 in regulation. Most encouragingly it was their big guns as Auston Matthews netted one and William Nylander scored twice.

The Canucks will hope to get to the number thanks to their easy opponent. Star Defenseman Quinn Hughes is back from injury, and Kiefer Sherwood has exploded out of the gate with 9 goals in 14 games after scoring a career high of just 19 last season, so let’s hope he can keep it going.