Fundamental
Overview
The uncertainty about a
December cut has been putting a lid on further stock market gains. The
probability for a December cut is now a bit below 50%. It’s still basically a
50/50 chance, but we will likely need soft labour market or inflation data to
get the Fed to cut at the upcoming meeting.
In fact, there’s a strong
debate within the FOMC whether a December cut is warranted at this point. The
data will have the final say, and the decision maker will likely be the
November NFP expected to be released in the first week of December just a few
days before the FOMC meeting.
Strong data is likely to
weigh on the market on a further hawkish repricing, while soft data should give
the market a boost as rate cut bets would increase.
Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Nasdaq daily
On the
daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq bounced again
around the major trendline. If we get another drop, we can
expect the dip-buyers to step in there again with a defined risk below the low
to position for a rally into new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into the 24,157 level next.
Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Nasdaq 4 hour
On
the 4 hour chart, there’s not
much we can glean from this timeframe as we don’t have clear levels where to
lean onto other than the above mentioned major trendline, so we need to zoom in
to see some more details.
Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Nasdaq 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 25,000 level. If the price
pulls back into the support, we can expect the buyers to step in there with a
defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 25,850 level
next. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase
the bearish bets into the major trendline targeting a breakout. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Tomorrow we get the weekly ADP jobs data. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC meeting
minutes. On Thursday, we get the September NFP report and maybe the US Jobless
Claims data. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs.
