Less than three weeks out from the announcement of the College Football Playoff field, it seems we could be headed for another head-scratching decision regarding this year’s 12-team bracket.
In Tuesday’s updated rankings from the selection committee, Notre Dame sits at No. 9 while Miami is 13th.
Both teams are 8–2. Miami beat Notre Dame 27–24 back in Week 1. And yet, it seems clear the Fighting Irish will comfortably be in the field once again if they win their final two games, while the Hurricanes will probably need chaos to break their way since they’re very likely to miss the ACC Championship Game.
How is this the case when we literally have proof of what happens when these two seemingly comparable teams face off on the field?
“I think when you look at Notre Dame and Miami, we really compare the losses of those two teams. Miami has lost to two unranked teams,” new selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek said Tuesday. “We really haven’t compared those two teams, they haven’t been in similar comparative pools to date. But Miami is creeping up to where they will be compared to Notre Dame if something happens above them.”
Yurachek, who took over the role on Nov. 13 when Mack Rhoades stepped down while taking a leave of absence as Baylor’s athletic director, is technically right about Miami’s losses.
Louisville was ranked before losing a second straight game Saturday, but in the updated rankings, the Hurricanes’ two losses are indeed to unranked ACC teams. Still, Louisville and SMU are a combined 14–6 (9–4 in ACC), so they aren’t exactly pushovers.
They also aren’t the top-15 teams that Notre Dame lost to in its first two games (Miami and now-No. 3 Texas A&M) before rattling off its current eight-game winning streak.
But that’s only half the equation. Who you lose to matters — but who you beat should matter just as much.
Miami has a top-10 win over Notre Dame and what was another ranked win over South Florida until the Bulls took their third loss Saturday and fell out of the top 25.
Notre Dame has a win over No. 15 USC and a win over a Pitt team it just knocked out of the rankings. Beyond that, the Irish have beaten two Group of Six teams above .500 (Boise State at 6–4 and Navy at 8–2) and four Power Four opponents who are a combined 10–32 this season.
Miami has the worse losses. It also has the best win — and arguably a better overall set of wins.
Shouldn’t both of those things matter? And if the résumés are as similar as many believe, shouldn’t the tiebreaker be the head-to-head matchup they literally played this season?
Sometimes I feel like I’m taking crazy pills listening to some of the CFP committee’s ranking logic. The most frustrating part is how the committee seems to value entirely different criteria every single year.
Some seasons, good wins matter most. Other years, it’s all about avoiding bad losses. In 2014, it was “game control.” Then there was the dreadful Florida State snub in 2023, credited largely to Jordan Travis’ injury.
All we ask for is consistency, and apparently that’s too much to request.
Pittsburgh could do the CFP selection committee a real solid by knocking off Miami in the final week of the regular season and making this comparison point irrelevant.
