- Mon: Bank of Israel Announcement; German Ifo (Nov), US National Activity Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)
- Tue: PBoC MLF; US Consumer Confidence (Nov), Richmond Fed (Nov), US Retail Sales (Oct)
- Wed: RBNZ Announcement, UK Autumn Budget; Australian CPI (Oct), US Dallas Fed (Oct)
- Thu: US Thanksgiving, ECB Minutes (Oct), BoK
Announcement; Chinese Industrial Profit (Oct), German GfK (Dec), EZ M3
(Oct), Consumer Confidence Final (Nov), Japanese Tokyo CPI (Nov),
Industrial Profit (Oct), Retail Sales (Oct) - Fri: German Import Prices (Oct), Retail Sales
(Oct), Spanish Flash HICP (Nov), German Prelim. HICP (Nov), Italian
Prelim. HICP (Nov), Swiss KOF (Nov), German Unemployment (Nov), Indian
GDP (Q3), Canadian GDP (Q3), US Chicago PMI (Nov)
US Retail Sales (Tue):
The delayed US September
retail sales have been rescheduled for 13:30GMT/08:30EST on Tuesday,
25th November. The headline M/M is expected to rise 0.4% (prev. 0.6%,
range -0.1% to +0.6%), Ex-Autos 0.3% (prev. 0.7%, range -0.1% to 0.6%),
with retail control anticipated at 0.3% (prev. 0.7%). Ex-Gas and Autos
last time out came in at 0.7%. In the monthly Bank of America Consumer
Checkpoint data, said total credit and debit card spending per household
increased 2% Y/Y in September, vs. 1.7% Y/Y in August. Seasonally
adjusted spending growth per household rose 0.2% M/M, which was the
fourth consecutive monthly gain. The checkpoint survey adds lower-income
households showed some spending recovery, but growth remains muted
compared to middle- and higher-income groups, likely due to softer wage
gains. Middle- and higher-income households have stronger wage growth,
but higher-income spending is likely also benefiting from wealth
effects. Once again, the retail sales data will be viewed to gauge the
strength, and health, of the consumer, but is it worth remembering it is
September data which has been delayed due to the US government
shutdown.
PBoC MLF (Tue):
The PBoC stood pat on its 1-year LPR
at 3.0% and 5-year at 3.5% for a sixth straight month, as expected. The
decision reflects a reduced urgency for fresh easing following the
US–China trade truce, despite continued signs of economic slowdown.
October data showed weaker exports, retail sales, and loan growth, while
the PBoC reintroduced its “cross-cyclical adjustment” (less dovish)
stance in its Q3 monetary policy report. Goldman Sachs said the bank is
tolerating slower credit growth and now sees a policy rate and RRR cut
in Q1 2026 rather than this quarter.
RBNZ Announcement (Wed):
The RBNZ is expected to
reduce its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to 2.25% at its final
meeting this year, according to 33 out of 36 analysts polled by Reuters,
with the other three expecting a hold at 2.50%. Meanwhile, money
markets assign a 98% chance of a 25bps cut and a 2% chance of a 50bps
reduction. Westpac also expects a 25bps cut and a downward revision to
the projected OCR track by roughly 30–35bps, implying a low of 2.20% in
early 2026 and a mild easing bias for next year. The bank anticipates
potential division within the committee between a 25bps and 50bps cut,
while signalling more transparency in communication. Westpac said a
25bps move is justified, adding that “if a 2.25% OCR can’t do the job,
neither will 2.0%,” with the weak NZD helping to rebalance demand and
inflation. Westpac is also told that Governor-elect Breman will not be
involved in the policy discussions.
UK Budget (Wed):
The main goal for Chancellor Reeves
is to assure markets that this really is a “one and done” budget,
plugging the black hole and providing herself with headroom that is
sufficient and judged as credible. However, she must balance that with
not going so far on taxation that she knocks the growth narrative.
Reeves needs to plug a fiscal hole that is thought to be in the GBP
20-35bln range. She can’t feasibly do this via simply cutting spending,
therefore the primary avenue available to her is taxation. Within this,
she has two options, either breaking the manifesto by increasing the
Income Tax rate. Or, increasing a number of smaller taxes in order to
plug the gap. Recent reports indicate that, following a better set of
OBR forecasts re. wages, the latter option is the base case. The exact
amount Reeves needs to generate is different to determine, but she will
need to provide a larger buffer than the GBP 9.9bln she had last time.
Market reaction will likely hinge on the following points: fiscal rules
(likely to be adhered to); degree of headroom (15-20bln exp.); how
contractionary the budget is; confidence in the revenue generation of
the smaller tax measures; DMO remit (FY25/26 remit will tick up, FY26/27
should be c. GBP 40bln lower); OBR forecasts (growth & inflation
rate they judge the budget equates to). For the BoE, the bar for the
Budget to significantly change the outlook for December, c. 80% chance
of a cut, is relatively high as the MPC, and particularly Governor
Bailey, are focussed on inflation prints. Specifically, the path of
least resistance for Gilts is likely higher; though, any political
fallout from the budget could spark a reassessment in the near term or
as we approach the May local elections.
Australian CPI (Wed):
There are currently no
expectations for Australia’s CPI release. Market pricing at this point
stands at a 92% chance of a hold at the December 9th meeting, with no
25bps full cuts priced in throughout the horizon. The data will also
follow the RBA’s November minutes, which highlighted a cautious,
data-dependent stance amid persistent inflation pressures and a
still-tight labour market. While inflation has fallen sharply since
2022, the RBA noted that both headline and underlying measures were
“significantly higher than forecast in August,” partly flagged by
monthly indicators. The cash rate was left unchanged at 3.60%, with the
board judging policy remains “lightly restrictive” and that it could
“afford to be patient” ahead of key data. According to CBA, the minutes
reaffirm that the next move will depend on inflation’s persistence,
while ANZ described the tone as “slightly more hawkish” than the
post-meeting statement. ANZ still sees one final 25bps cut in H1 2026,
whereas Westpac expects two cuts (May and August 2026) if inflation
continues to moderate.
ECB Minutes (Thu):
October’s ECB saw the ECB hold
the Deposit Rate at 2.00%. The decision to do so was based on the lack
of incremental shifts in data since the September meeting and confidence
that indicators of underlying inflation are consistent with the ECB’s
target. Additionally, the ECB retained its meeting-by-meeting and
data-dependent approach. At the press conference, President Lagarde
reaffirmed that policy is in a “good place” but it is not a fixed point,
and the GC will do whatever is necessary to stay in a good place. With
regards to the decision itself, the President stated that it was a
unanimous one. In terms of the economic assessment, Lagarde stated that
some of the downside risks to growth have abated. However, the same
cannot be said for inflation. Overall, despite some of the risks
surrounding the Eurozone outlook (US trade policies, appreciation in the
EUR, French politics), the ECB remains confident in the bloc’s growth
outlook, whilst cautious of potential upside inflation risks. The
minutes will be scoured for any early insight around December; however,
it remains to be seen what insight will be provided with the board
awaiting the December forecasts, particularly re. 2028, to update their
assessment on the policy trajectory. As it stands, the bar for a cut in
the near-term remains high with markets increasingly of the view that
the ECB is likely at terminal, pricing in less than 1bp of easing in
December.
BoK Announcement (Thu):
The Bank of Korea is
expected to keep its Base Rate unchanged at 2.5%, maintaining its pause
since May as policymakers continue to balance household debt risks
against the need to support growth. At the prior meeting, the BoK cited
stable inflation and an improving growth outlook but noted rising
uncertainty from US trade tensions and housing market imbalances. Bank
of America economists, however, pencilled in a rate cut in November to
bolster growth, contingent on progress made in trade talks and housing
policy. According to Bank of America, housing inflation remains the key
constraint on further easing, though a rate cut in the months ahead
could still be considered if trade progress and housing measures
stabilise conditions.
Chinese Industrial Profit (Thu):
There are currently
no expectations for the Chinese Industrial Profits YTD, which rose 3.2%
Y/Y in September. The prior release showed profits at large industrial
firms returning to growth after months of contraction, with August
profits up 20.4% Y/Y – the first monthly rise since April, driven by
falling costs and a low base effect, according to the National Bureau of
Statistics. Despite the improvement, the NBS cautioned that economic
conditions remain “severe and complex,” with weak domestic demand and
pressure on margins.
Tokyo CPI (Thu):
In October, Tokyo CPI rose 2.8% Y/Y
(prev. 2.5%, exp. 2.4%), marking a stronger-than-expected print as
firms raised prices during the key annual adjustment period, with the
nationwide metric accelerating, but as expected. Following last month’s
Tokyo CPI release, ING expects core CPI to hover near 2.5% by year-end,
sustained by solid wage growth, though headline inflation may ease early
next year as the Takaichi government implements temporary fuel tax cuts
and energy bill subsidies.
Canadian GDP (Fri):
Canada is due to release Q3 and
September GDP data on Friday, Nov. 28. Statistics Canada is also
expected to publish a preliminary estimate for October. For September,
the agency has estimated real GDP rose 0.1%. Its advance reading implies
real GDP also inched up 0.1% in Q3 2025. With the Bank of Canada
holding rates at the lower end of its neutral range and signalling that
current settings are appropriate, policymakers would need to see a
significant surprise to resume cutting. Minutes show the bank is
prepared to adjust rates if required and that it’s guidance depends on
the economy tracking its forecast. The BoC’s Monetary Policy Report
projects weak growth in the second half of 2025, averaging about 0.75%.
Exports and business investment are expected to fall further, while
household and government spending continue to support activity. GDP
growth is forecast to pick up gradually thereafter, with annual growth
averaging 1.4% over 2026 and 2027. The Monetary Policy Report noted that
the trade conflict has pushed the economy onto a weaker trajectory,
noting both potential output and demand have been hit, and GDP is now
projected to be about 1.5% lower by the end of 2026 than what was
forecast in January.
This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.
