Goldman Sachs expects the US Federal Reserve to deliver a third consecutive rate cut at its December meeting.

GS see moderating inflation and cooling labour-market conditions as giving policymakers room to ease further.

then anticipates two additional reductions in 2026, one in March and another in June
to bring the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.00%–3.25%
baseline view is that the Fed will feel increasingly confident that disinflation is durable and that policy no longer needs to remain meaningfully restrictive

Analysts at the firm say that the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious tone in the near term, but the trajectory of core prices and wage growth suggests that the policy stance can shift gradually toward neutral next year.

Goldman also noted that financial conditions have eased meaningfully since the Fed began cutting rates, helping to stabilise corporate borrowing costs and household credit flows. By mid-2026, the bank expects the Fed to have completed its first meaningful easing cycle since the pandemic-era adjustments, keeping rates comfortably below last year’s peak but still above the ultra-loose settings of the past decade.