Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 20 bps (79% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 93 bps
- ECB: 1 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 8 bps
- BoE: 23 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 64 bps
- BoC: 3 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 12 bps
- RBA: 1 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 8 bps
- RBNZ 2026: 16 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB: 2 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 7 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 8 bps (66% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 45 bps
*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing is expected in 2026 alone.
The odds for a December Fed cut strengthened this week to 79%. The trigger for the dovish repricing was of course Fed’s Williams endorsement last Friday. This week the soft weekly ADP jobs data and unchanged jobless claims, kind of sealed the deal for a cut. What happens next will depend on the FOMC decision and the following NFP/CPI reports.
The other major repricing happened with the RBNZ as the central bank signalled the end of the easing cycle. This triggered a “hawkish” repricing in 2026 expectations as the market was pricing high chances of another cut.
