Dec 3, 2025; San Jose, California, USA; Washington Capitals right winger Ryan Leonard (9) celebrates after scoring a goal against the San Jose Sharks in the first period at SAP Center at San Jose. Mandatory Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images Everybody’s working for the weekend.
It’s a limited five-game Friday slate for NHL Picks, but I like the chance for some fireworks out west in the late window.
NHL Season Stats: 5-17 (-11.07 Units)
Washington Capitals at Anaheim Ducks
Over 6.5 (-110 Fanatics)
Anaheim’s goaltending situation gets shakier by the day. Now they are down their top two netminders as Petr Mrazek (lower body) joins Lukas Dostal (upper body) on the shelf. In steps journeyman Ville Husso and his 85.9% save percentage and -2.70 GSAA in just under three games. He’s had some sporadic success over his 5+ seasons in the league — he carries a 90.1% career save percentage — though he’s only started 36 games total since the 2022–23 season.
He has a tough assignment as the Caps rank second in the league with 3.48 goals per 60 minutes, fully backed by their level of play as their xGF ranks third at 3.41 per 60. Tom Wilson, known mostly for his “aggressive” play (I’m being generous), has developed into a major offensive force this season with 16 goals and 14 assists in 28 games.
They also employ this Alex Ovechkin guy who you may have heard of, and he’s still filling up the stat sheet at 14-15-29. The Caps max out their living legend, as they have yet to put him in during a defensive-zone faceoff situation (he’s the only guy in the league who’s played at least 100 minutes who can say that).
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The Ducks rank just behind the Caps at 3.43 goals per 60, and if anything, will have to ramp up the offense more now that they are short in net and are a bad defensive team to begin with at 3.42 xGA per 60 minutes. Their opponent alone went over this total on Wednesday as the Mammoth netted seven. The Caps, for their part, also hit the lucky seven on Wednesday.
What could go wrong? Well, the fourth part of this equation is the Caps’ goal prevention — and they are quite good at it. Logan Thompson should get the start, and he has a 91.9% save percentage and 9.62 GSAA that ranks fourth in the league. The Caps rank second in actual goals allowed per game and eighth in expected goals allowed.
But everything else points to some offense. In addition, the Caps might have some tired legs as they play their third game in four nights in an oddly scheduled LA-to-San Jose-to-Anaheim swing.
Give me the Over.
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