Why Félix Hernández Belongs within the Hall of Fame With Sandy Koufax

Among the candidates for baseball’s Hall of Fame on the current BBWAA ballot, you won’t find the next Sandy Koufax.

But you will find right-hander Félix Hérnández, whose accomplishments rank somewhere between Koufax and Dizzy Dean, a pair of Hall of Famers who had short careers punctuated by dominant peaks. When they were good, Koufax and Dean were really, really good, even if neither were able to have much of a career after reaching age 30.

Koufax, who turned 90 years old Tuesday, is the archetype among starting pitchers for having a high peak and short career. He famously retired in 1966 having won five straight National League ERA titles for the Los Angeles Dodgers before being pushed into retirement because of injuries. No matter: Despite a lack of cumulative stats, along with the BBWAA’s historical penchant for making even the best players wait way too long for induction, the writers elected Koufax on the first ballot in 1972 with 86.9% of the vote. It was 100% the right thing for them to do, even if it contradicted, in multiple ways, four decades of previous election results.

In a nice coincidence, Koufax’s birthday always comes a day before the Dec. 31 deadline to have BBWAA ballots postmarked. So, if anybody was planning on voting for Hérnández (or anyone else) for ’26, time is about up.

Hérnández’s journey to Cooperstown, should he get there, will look more like that of Dean, who was elected on his ninth ballot in 1953. Hérnández received 20.6% of the vote in his first ballot a year ago, and is polling much better this time on the Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker, which Ryan Thibodaux started curating in 2014. As of late Tuesday night, with 23.6% public votes counted, Hérnández sat at 58.4%. Players need 75% for election, which almost certainly won’t happen this time for Hérnández when results are announced Jan. 20. Right now, it’s looking good for Carlos Beltrán and possibly good for Andruw Jones.

It’s looking like it might happen someday for Hérnández, who wouldn’t be the worst pitcher added to Cooperstown. Hérnández has a Cy Young (and five more top-10 finishes) to go with two ERA titles and six All-Star appearances. Hérnández performed much better overall than Dean, who had the high six-season peak and not much else. Hérnández ranks 69th among qualified starting pitchers in WAR at Fangraphs — right between Koufax and Ted Lyons (another Hall of Famer), and ahead of at least 24 starters already in the Hall. Dean ranks 151st in fWAR, and is not even the best pitcher nicknamed Dizzy in history. That’s Dizzy Trout, who is not in the Hall.

Just looking at the peak of his own era (2006-2015) Hérnández ranks No. 1 in fWAR. Better in that span, slightly, than Justin Verlander. Where he starts to fall off is in longevity — something Koufax and Dean don’t have, either. The only starting pitcher in Cooperstown with fewer innings pitched than Koufax is Dean.

This is not to say that Hérnández was a better pitcher than Koufax, but even Koufax’s career had to be put in a certain context to make the results worthy of the Hall of Fame. Arrange the plaques however you want. Make a mental list of Hall of Famers and put them in pretend tiers of varying greatness. Rank the heck out of them on your own time.

Just understand that Félix Hérnández belongs in the same building with Sandy Koufax and Dizzy Dean.