What are the primary occasions for at present?

EUROPEAN SESSION

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the French consumer confidence and the Spanish unemployment rate. None of the data will change anything for the markets or the ECB, so the reaction will be muted. Traders are now just waiting for the FOMC decision tomorrow.

AMERICAN SESSION

In the American session, the main highlights will be the weekly US ADP jobs data and the US Consumer Confidence report. The weekly ADP data has been showing positive growth throughout December but that’s not something the markets cared much about given that we already got the December NFP report.

Today we will see if that momentum continued into January as the ADP will also cover the first week of the month. Based on the US Jobless Claims data, the labour market seems to be improving, and we will see if that’s really the case with the US NFP report next week.

The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 90.9 vs 89.1 prior. The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey ticked higher and even though the overall improvement was small, it was broad based, seen across the income distribution, educational attainment, older and younger consumers, and Republicans and Democrats alike. Note that the consumer confidence report is heavily weighted toward labor market conditions, while consumer sentiment focuses more on household financial conditions.

CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS

• 17:00 GMT/12:00 ET – ECB’s Nagel (neutral – voter)