It’s not simply Trump’s hawkish rhetoric towards Iran pushing up oil costs

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Oil prices are now at the highest levels since September 2025 as Trump’s hawkish rhetoric against Iran continues to underpin the market. Yesterday, Trump said on his Truth Social account that time was running out for Iran and that the next attack would be far worse “that last year’s).

Trump has been threatening Iran with military strikes unless they negotiate a deal over Iran’s nuclear programme. The New York Times reported that negotiations have made no progress and there are no indications that the Iranians are preparing to give in to Trump’s demands.

This geopolitical risk has been a tailwind for the market but there are also signs that demand is rising. In fact, US breakevens have been going up in a straight line since December and that generally happens when the market expects economic conditions to improve. Therefore, it’s not just a supply side story due to the geopolitical risk premium but there’s also demand doing its part.

In fact, US growth has been surprising to the upside and US jobless claims have been pointing to an improvement in the labour market conditions. If this continues, oil prices will remain supported even without Iran’s risk.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil broke above the swing high around the 62.37 level and extended the gains into new highs as the buyers piled in to target the 66.44 level next. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop back into the 62.37 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 70.00 handle next.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a pullback into the 62.37 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.